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icon for Eleição presidencial do Brasil Primeiro turno: Flávio Bolsonaro Vote Share?
Mundo·Brasil

Eleição presidencial do Brasil Primeiro turno: Flávio Bolsonaro Vote Share?

icon for Eleição presidencial do Brasil Primeiro turno: Flávio Bolsonaro Vote Share?
Mundo·Brasil

Eleição presidencial do Brasil Primeiro turno: Flávio Bolsonaro Vote Share?

39%+ 78%

36-39% 15%

33-36% 3.8%

<30% 2.3%

Polymarket
NOVO

$25,457 Vol.

39%+ 78%

36-39% 15%

33-36% 3.8%

<30% 2.3%

Polymarket
NOVO

$25,457 Vol.

<30%

$2,549 Vol.

2%

30-33%

$2,623 Vol.

1%

33-36%

$2,918 Vol.

4%

36-39%

$5,778 Vol.

15%

39%+

$11,632 Vol.

78%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election. The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling shows Flávio Bolsonaro gaining ground in the first-round contest scheduled for October 4, with AtlasIntel placing him at 41.7% behind Lula at 44.1% in its latest survey, up from 37.4% earlier in September. Aggregators indicate consistent readings in the mid-to-high 30s across multiple firms, supported by strong right-wing mobilization, Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement, and voter shifts tied to Supreme Court controversies. Traders price the 39%+ outcome heavily because these trends point to continued consolidation of conservative support and potential “useful vote” effects from smaller candidates. An ongoing investigation into campaign financing has not reversed the upward movement in recent data.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.

The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election. The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$25,457
Data de Término
5 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election. The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling shows Flávio Bolsonaro gaining ground in the first-round contest scheduled for October 4, with AtlasIntel placing him at 41.7% behind Lula at 44.1% in its latest survey, up from 37.4% earlier in September. Aggregators indicate consistent readings in the mid-to-high 30s across multiple firms, supported by strong right-wing mobilization, Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement, and voter shifts tied to Supreme Court controversies. Traders price the 39%+ outcome heavily because these trends point to continued consolidation of conservative support and potential “useful vote” effects from smaller candidates. An ongoing investigation into campaign financing has not reversed the upward movement in recent data.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.

The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election. The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$25,457
Data de Término
5 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Eleição presidencial do Brasil Primeiro turno: Flávio Bolsonaro Vote Share?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "39%+" at 78%, followed by "36-39%" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 78¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 78% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Eleição presidencial do Brasil Primeiro turno: Flávio Bolsonaro Vote Share?" has generated $25.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 15, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Eleição presidencial do Brasil Primeiro turno: Flávio Bolsonaro Vote Share?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Eleição presidencial do Brasil Primeiro turno: Flávio Bolsonaro Vote Share?" is "39%+" at 78%, meaning the market assigns a 78% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "36-39%" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Eleição presidencial do Brasil Primeiro turno: Flávio Bolsonaro Vote Share?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.