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icon for Vencedor do primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil
Política·Brasil

Vencedor do primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil

icon for Vencedor do primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil
Política·Brasil

Vencedor do primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil

Lula 90%

Flavio Bolsonaro 10%

Escritor Augusto Cury 1.0%

Renan Santos <1%

Polymarket

$18,631 Vol.

Lula 90%

Flavio Bolsonaro 10%

Escritor Augusto Cury 1.0%

Renan Santos <1%

Polymarket

$18,631 Vol.

icon for Lula

Lula

$7,466 Vol.

90%

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$3,772 Vol.

10%

icon for Escritor Augusto Cury

Escritor Augusto Cury

$1,394 Vol.

1%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$1,366 Vol.

1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$1,371 Vol.

<1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$783 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$477 Vol.

<1%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$288 Vol.

<1%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$296 Vol.

<1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$296 Vol.

<1%

icon for Veterinário Wilson Grassi

Veterinário Wilson Grassi

$316 Vol.

<1%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$259 Vol.

<1%

icon for Zema

Zema

$546 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Lula maintains a clear lead in first-round polling averages ahead of Brazil’s October 4, 2026 presidential vote, positioning him as the strong favorite to finish first.** Recent Datafolha, Quaest, and AtlasIntel surveys place the incumbent Workers’ Party candidate in the high 30s to low 40s, ahead of Liberal Party Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in the low-to-mid 30s, with rising support for outsider Augusto Cury and smaller shares for Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema. No candidate approaches the 50% threshold needed to win outright, so the contest centers on which contender secures the top spot and advances to the October 25 runoff. Trader pricing reflects Lula’s consistent polling edge, high name recognition, and established base, while Flávio Bolsonaro’s narrower path stems from coalition-building challenges and recent campaign scrutiny. The first-round outcome hinges on turnout patterns and late shifts among undecided or blank voters.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$18,631
Data de Término
4 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 31, 2026, 1:47 PM ET

Fonte de resolução

https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Lula maintains a clear lead in first-round polling averages ahead of Brazil’s October 4, 2026 presidential vote, positioning him as the strong favorite to finish first.** Recent Datafolha, Quaest, and AtlasIntel surveys place the incumbent Workers’ Party candidate in the high 30s to low 40s, ahead of Liberal Party Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in the low-to-mid 30s, with rising support for outsider Augusto Cury and smaller shares for Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema. No candidate approaches the 50% threshold needed to win outright, so the contest centers on which contender secures the top spot and advances to the October 25 runoff. Trader pricing reflects Lula’s consistent polling edge, high name recognition, and established base, while Flávio Bolsonaro’s narrower path stems from coalition-building challenges and recent campaign scrutiny. The first-round outcome hinges on turnout patterns and late shifts among undecided or blank voters.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$18,631
Data de Término
4 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 31, 2026, 1:47 PM ET

Fonte de resolução

https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor do primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Lula" at 90%, followed by "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 10%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 90¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 90% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor do primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil" has generated $18.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 31, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor do primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor do primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil" is "Lula" at 90%, meaning the market assigns a 90% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 10%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor do primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.