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icon for Eleição presidencial do Brasil em primeiro turno: 1º lugar no Amazonas
Política·Brasil

Eleição presidencial do Brasil em primeiro turno: 1º lugar no Amazonas

icon for Eleição presidencial do Brasil em primeiro turno: 1º lugar no Amazonas
Política·Brasil

Eleição presidencial do Brasil em primeiro turno: 1º lugar no Amazonas

Lula 87%

Flavio Bolsonaro 12%

Renan Santos 1.5%

Veterinário Wilson Grassi <1%

Polymarket
NOVO

Lula 87%

Flavio Bolsonaro 12%

Renan Santos 1.5%

Veterinário Wilson Grassi <1%

Polymarket
NOVO
icon for Lula

Lula

$3,076 Vol.

87%

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$1,347 Vol.

12%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$414 Vol.

2%

icon for Veterinário Wilson Grassi

Veterinário Wilson Grassi

$353 Vol.

1%

icon for Zema

Zema

$402 Vol.

1%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$412 Vol.

1%

icon for Escritor Augusto Cury

Escritor Augusto Cury

$376 Vol.

1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$341 Vol.

1%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$421 Vol.

<1%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$566 Vol.

<1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$566 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$461 Vol.

<1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$351 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds an 86.5% implied probability of finishing first in Amazonas during the 2026 presidential election's initial round, according to trader consensus, while Flavio Bolsonaro sits at 11.5% and other listed contenders remain at or below 1.7%. This positioning stems from consistent polling leads for the incumbent in the state, including June surveys showing him ahead by nine points amid strong interior support that offsets tighter competition in Manaus. Lula's late-May visit to the region and an August offshore oil discovery near the Amazon coast have reinforced his development-focused messaging among local voters. National first-round trends and the limited viability of alternatives like Ronaldo Caiado or Renan Santos further concentrate probabilities on the two leading figures ahead of the October vote.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$9,088
Data de Término
4 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds an 86.5% implied probability of finishing first in Amazonas during the 2026 presidential election's initial round, according to trader consensus, while Flavio Bolsonaro sits at 11.5% and other listed contenders remain at or below 1.7%. This positioning stems from consistent polling leads for the incumbent in the state, including June surveys showing him ahead by nine points amid strong interior support that offsets tighter competition in Manaus. Lula's late-May visit to the region and an August offshore oil discovery near the Amazon coast have reinforced his development-focused messaging among local voters. National first-round trends and the limited viability of alternatives like Ronaldo Caiado or Renan Santos further concentrate probabilities on the two leading figures ahead of the October vote.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$9,088
Data de Término
4 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

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Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Eleição presidencial do Brasil em primeiro turno: 1º lugar no Amazonas" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Lula" at 87%, followed by "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 12%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 87¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Eleição presidencial do Brasil em primeiro turno: 1º lugar no Amazonas" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Eleição presidencial do Brasil em primeiro turno: 1º lugar no Amazonas," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Eleição presidencial do Brasil em primeiro turno: 1º lugar no Amazonas" is "Lula" at 87%, meaning the market assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 12%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Eleição presidencial do Brasil em primeiro turno: 1º lugar no Amazonas" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.