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Eleições·Brasil

Vencedor da eleição para governador do Rio de Janeiro

icon for Vencedor da eleição para governador do Rio de Janeiro
Eleições·Brasil

Vencedor da eleição para governador do Rio de Janeiro

Eduardo Paes 93.4%

Douglas Ruas 2.6%

Coronel Busnello 1.6%

Anthony Garotinho 1.4%

Polymarket

$290,298 Vol.

Eduardo Paes 93.4%

Douglas Ruas 2.6%

Coronel Busnello 1.6%

Anthony Garotinho 1.4%

Polymarket

$290,298 Vol.

Eduardo Paes

$37,819 Vol.

93%

Douglas Ruas

$11,556 Vol.

3%

Coronel Busnello

$8,435 Vol.

2%

Anthony Garotinho

$12,205 Vol.

1%

Rafa Luz

$5,230 Vol.

1%

Felipe Curi

$17,775 Vol.

<1%

Fred Pacheco

$133,211 Vol.

<1%

Tarcísio Motta

$8,891 Vol.

<1%

Wilson Witzel

$10,583 Vol.

<1%

Lindbergh Farias

$6,102 Vol.

<1%

André Ceciliano

$10,694 Vol.

<1%

Dr. Luizinho

$8,451 Vol.

<1%

Chico Machado

$7,554 Vol.

<1%

Eduardo Pazuello

$2,717 Vol.

<1%

Nicola Miccione

$5,387 Vol.

<1%

André Português

$3,688 Vol.

<1%

The Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Eduardo Paes maintains a commanding lead in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial race, driven by consistent polling dominance across first- and second-round scenarios and extensive coalition-building efforts ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. The former mayor resigned his city post in March 2026 to enter the contest, forming alliances spanning center-right and left-leaning parties for vice-governor and Senate slots while drawing support from inland regions and the Baixada Fluminense. Fragmented opposition candidates, including Douglas Ruas and Anthony Garotinho, register single-digit support in surveys, limiting their viability. Trader consensus reflects this positioning through elevated implied probability for Paes. Potential shifts could arise from major changes in public security perceptions, unexpected opposition consolidation, or late coalition realignments that alter voter preferences before election day.

The Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$290,298
Data de Término
5 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jun 9, 2026, 10:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Eduardo Paes maintains a commanding lead in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial race, driven by consistent polling dominance across first- and second-round scenarios and extensive coalition-building efforts ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. The former mayor resigned his city post in March 2026 to enter the contest, forming alliances spanning center-right and left-leaning parties for vice-governor and Senate slots while drawing support from inland regions and the Baixada Fluminense. Fragmented opposition candidates, including Douglas Ruas and Anthony Garotinho, register single-digit support in surveys, limiting their viability. Trader consensus reflects this positioning through elevated implied probability for Paes. Potential shifts could arise from major changes in public security perceptions, unexpected opposition consolidation, or late coalition realignments that alter voter preferences before election day.

The Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$290,298
Data de Término
5 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jun 9, 2026, 10:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

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Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da eleição para governador do Rio de Janeiro" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 16 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Eduardo Paes" at 93%, followed by "Douglas Ruas" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 93¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 93% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor da eleição para governador do Rio de Janeiro" has generated $290.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 9, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor da eleição para governador do Rio de Janeiro," browse the 16 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da eleição para governador do Rio de Janeiro" is "Eduardo Paes" at 93%, meaning the market assigns a 93% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Douglas Ruas" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da eleição para governador do Rio de Janeiro" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.