**An ongoing Supreme Court investigation into Flávio Bolsonaro for alleged corruption, money laundering, and related offenses tied to film financing remains at the inquiry stage, with documents unsealed only in mid-September 2026.** No formal charges or arrest warrants have been issued, and Brazilian judicial procedures involving the STF typically require additional investigative steps, prosecutorial review, and hearings before advancing to indictment. With the first-round presidential election set for October 4 and Flávio actively campaigning as a leading contender, rapid escalation by September 30 appears structurally constrained. Traders assign the “No” outcome a 94.5% implied probability because the probe, opened in July, shows no public signs of acceleration toward immediate action in the remaining days.