Sergio Moro holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Paraná gubernatorial race, scheduled for October 4, as the clear frontrunner in recent polling and among traders. June surveys from Paraná Pesquisas and Instituto Veritá show him at approximately 42% in first-round scenarios, more than 20 points ahead of Requião Filho, with Rafael Greca, Sandro Alex, and other names trailing further behind. This positioning stems from Moro’s established Senate tenure representing the state, anti-corruption profile, and alignment with center-right forces including Flávio Bolsonaro, which has consolidated support while disrupting PSD coordination around the incumbent governor’s preferred successor. High approval ratings for the term-limited Ratinho Júnior administration have not translated to his chosen candidate, leaving room for volatility as two-thirds of voters indicate they could still shift preferences before election day.