Skip to main content
icon for A AfD ganhará a maioria absoluta dos assentos em Mecklemburgo-Pomerânia Ocidental?
Política·Alemanha

A AfD ganhará a maioria absoluta dos assentos em Mecklemburgo-Pomerânia Ocidental?

icon for A AfD ganhará a maioria absoluta dos assentos em Mecklemburgo-Pomerânia Ocidental?
Política·Alemanha

A AfD ganhará a maioria absoluta dos assentos em Mecklemburgo-Pomerânia Ocidental?

Sim

13% chance
Polymarket
NOVO

Sim

13% chance
Polymarket
NOVO
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polls for the September 20, 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election show the AfD holding a plurality near 35-36 percent, ahead of the SPD at 27-29 percent and smaller parties including the Left, CDU, and others, yet remaining well short of the roughly 50 percent vote share needed for an absolute majority of seats. This fragmentation, combined with limited coalition options for the AfD, underpins trader consensus reflected in the narrow edge for No. Stable survey trends through July 2026, without major late swings in support or turnout patterns among eastern German voters, have kept probabilities closely balanced. Shifts in turnout among core blocs, last-minute campaign developments, or changes in smaller-party thresholds could still alter the seat math before election day.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$93
Data de Término
20 set 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 6, 2026, 8:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polls for the September 20, 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election show the AfD holding a plurality near 35-36 percent, ahead of the SPD at 27-29 percent and smaller parties including the Left, CDU, and others, yet remaining well short of the roughly 50 percent vote share needed for an absolute majority of seats. This fragmentation, combined with limited coalition options for the AfD, underpins trader consensus reflected in the narrow edge for No. Stable survey trends through July 2026, without major late swings in support or turnout patterns among eastern German voters, have kept probabilities closely balanced. Shifts in turnout among core blocs, last-minute campaign developments, or changes in smaller-party thresholds could still alter the seat math before election day.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$93
Data de Término
20 set 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 6, 2026, 8:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).

Relacionado

icon for Will AfD win 28-31 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?

Will AfD win 28-31 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?

38%
icon for Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?

Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?

25%
icon for A AfD vai ganhar mais assentos nas eleições parlamentares de 2026 em Mecklemburgo-Pomerânia Ocidental?

A AfD vai ganhar mais assentos nas eleições parlamentares de 2026 em Mecklemburgo-Pomerânia Ocidental?

86%
Sim

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"A AfD ganhará a maioria absoluta dos assentos em Mecklemburgo-Pomerânia Ocidental?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "O AfD vai ganhar a maioria absoluta dos assentos em Meclemburgo-Pomerânia Ocidental?" at 13%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 13¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 13% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"A AfD ganhará a maioria absoluta dos assentos em Mecklemburgo-Pomerânia Ocidental?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 6, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "A AfD ganhará a maioria absoluta dos assentos em Mecklemburgo-Pomerânia Ocidental?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "A AfD ganhará a maioria absoluta dos assentos em Mecklemburgo-Pomerânia Ocidental?" is "O AfD vai ganhar a maioria absoluta dos assentos em Meclemburgo-Pomerânia Ocidental?" at 13%, meaning the market assigns a 13% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "A AfD ganhará a maioria absoluta dos assentos em Mecklemburgo-Pomerânia Ocidental?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.