Germany’s Q3 2026 GDP growth faces balanced market-implied odds across outcome buckets, reflecting uncertainty between a modest rebound and subdued expansion. July’s manufacturing PMI surge to 52.2, fueled by stronger output and export orders, supports a firmer quarterly print, yet elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions and 2.9% headline inflation continue to weigh on real incomes and consumption. Broader 2026 forecasts cluster near 0.6%, anchored by gradual fiscal stimulus and labor-market stability around 4% unemployment, while export reliance on China and auto-sector headwinds cap upside. Traders weigh the recent PMI momentum against lingering post-recession scars and potential ECB policy restraint, creating tight contestation around the 0.1–0.9% range as key swing factors.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado≤0.0% 50%
0.1-0.3% 50%
0.4-0.6% 50%
0.7-0.9% 50%
NOVO
NOVO
30 out 2026
≤0.0%
50%
0.1-0.3%
50%
0.4-0.6%
50%
0.7-0.9%
50%
1.0-1.2%
50%
1.3%+
50%
≤0.0% 50%
0.1-0.3% 50%
0.4-0.6% 50%
0.7-0.9% 50%
NOVO
NOVO
30 out 2026
≤0.0%
$0 Vol.
50%
0.1-0.3%
$0 Vol.
50%
0.4-0.6%
$0 Vol.
50%
0.7-0.9%
$0 Vol.
50%
1.0-1.2%
$0 Vol.
50%
1.3%+
$0 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Germany’s Q3 2026 GDP growth faces balanced market-implied odds across outcome buckets, reflecting uncertainty between a modest rebound and subdued expansion. July’s manufacturing PMI surge to 52.2, fueled by stronger output and export orders, supports a firmer quarterly print, yet elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions and 2.9% headline inflation continue to weigh on real incomes and consumption. Broader 2026 forecasts cluster near 0.6%, anchored by gradual fiscal stimulus and labor-market stability around 4% unemployment, while export reliance on China and auto-sector headwinds cap upside. Traders weigh the recent PMI momentum against lingering post-recession scars and potential ECB policy restraint, creating tight contestation around the 0.1–0.9% range as key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 31, 2026, 7:28 PM ET
Volume
$0Data de Término
30 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 31, 2026, 7:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Germany’s Q3 2026 GDP growth faces balanced market-implied odds across outcome buckets, reflecting uncertainty between a modest rebound and subdued expansion. July’s manufacturing PMI surge to 52.2, fueled by stronger output and export orders, supports a firmer quarterly print, yet elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions and 2.9% headline inflation continue to weigh on real incomes and consumption. Broader 2026 forecasts cluster near 0.6%, anchored by gradual fiscal stimulus and labor-market stability around 4% unemployment, while export reliance on China and auto-sector headwinds cap upside. Traders weigh the recent PMI momentum against lingering post-recession scars and potential ECB policy restraint, creating tight contestation around the 0.1–0.9% range as key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$0Data de Término
30 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 31, 2026, 7:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Germany’s Q3 2026 GDP growth faces balanced market-implied odds across outcome buckets, reflecting uncertainty between a modest rebound and subdued expansion. July’s manufacturing PMI surge to 52.2, fueled by stronger output and export orders, supports a firmer quarterly print, yet elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions and 2.9% headline inflation continue to weigh on real incomes and consumption. Broader 2026 forecasts cluster near 0.6%, anchored by gradual fiscal stimulus and labor-market stability around 4% unemployment, while export reliance on China and auto-sector headwinds cap upside. Traders weigh the recent PMI momentum against lingering post-recession scars and potential ECB policy restraint, creating tight contestation around the 0.1–0.9% range as key swing factors.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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