Recent weak eurozone GDP data, with Q1 2026 expanding just 0.1% quarter-over-quarter amid energy price spikes from Middle East supply disruptions, has anchored trader focus on subdued momentum. This backdrop explains the 60.5% market-implied odds for 1.0-2.0% annual growth as the consensus range, incorporating expectations of stabilization through resilient labor markets, German fiscal outlays on infrastructure and defense, and gradual ECB policy adjustments. Downside buckets like 0-1.0% at 24.8% capture risks from prolonged inflation pressures and tighter financial conditions, while higher ranges reflect limited upside potential. Key near-term catalysts include May inflation releases and the June ECB meeting, which could shift the implied rate path and growth trajectory.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado1,0-2,0% 61%
3,0-4,0% 17.2%
2,0-3,0% 10%
<0% 7.2%
NOVO
NOVO
31 jan 2027
<0%
13%
0-1,0%
23%
1,0-2,0%
61%
2,0-3,0%
10%
3,0-4,0%
17%
4,0-5,0%
4%
5,0-6,0%
2%
6,0-7,0%
1%
7,0%+
3%
1,0-2,0% 61%
3,0-4,0% 17.2%
2,0-3,0% 10%
<0% 7.2%
NOVO
NOVO
31 jan 2027
<0%
$792 Vol.
13%
0-1,0%
$636 Vol.
23%
1,0-2,0%
$1,474 Vol.
61%
2,0-3,0%
$638 Vol.
10%
3,0-4,0%
$567 Vol.
17%
4,0-5,0%
$1,540 Vol.
4%
5,0-6,0%
$631 Vol.
2%
6,0-7,0%
$1,323 Vol.
1%
7,0%+
$1,110 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent weak eurozone GDP data, with Q1 2026 expanding just 0.1% quarter-over-quarter amid energy price spikes from Middle East supply disruptions, has anchored trader focus on subdued momentum. This backdrop explains the 60.5% market-implied odds for 1.0-2.0% annual growth as the consensus range, incorporating expectations of stabilization through resilient labor markets, German fiscal outlays on infrastructure and defense, and gradual ECB policy adjustments. Downside buckets like 0-1.0% at 24.8% capture risks from prolonged inflation pressures and tighter financial conditions, while higher ranges reflect limited upside potential. Key near-term catalysts include May inflation releases and the June ECB meeting, which could shift the implied rate path and growth trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$8,712Data de Término
31 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent weak eurozone GDP data, with Q1 2026 expanding just 0.1% quarter-over-quarter amid energy price spikes from Middle East supply disruptions, has anchored trader focus on subdued momentum. This backdrop explains the 60.5% market-implied odds for 1.0-2.0% annual growth as the consensus range, incorporating expectations of stabilization through resilient labor markets, German fiscal outlays on infrastructure and defense, and gradual ECB policy adjustments. Downside buckets like 0-1.0% at 24.8% capture risks from prolonged inflation pressures and tighter financial conditions, while higher ranges reflect limited upside potential. Key near-term catalysts include May inflation releases and the June ECB meeting, which could shift the implied rate path and growth trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$8,712Data de Término
31 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent weak eurozone GDP data, with Q1 2026 expanding just 0.1% quarter-over-quarter amid energy price spikes from Middle East supply disruptions, has anchored trader focus on subdued momentum. This backdrop explains the 60.5% market-implied odds for 1.0-2.0% annual growth as the consensus range, incorporating expectations of stabilization through resilient labor markets, German fiscal outlays on infrastructure and defense, and gradual ECB policy adjustments. Downside buckets like 0-1.0% at 24.8% capture risks from prolonged inflation pressures and tighter financial conditions, while higher ranges reflect limited upside potential. Key near-term catalysts include May inflation releases and the June ECB meeting, which could shift the implied rate path and growth trajectory.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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