Recent energy price shocks tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions have prompted widespread downward revisions to 2026 Eurozone GDP forecasts, with institutions including the ECB, OECD, IMF, and private forecasters converging on 0.8–1.0% growth. Weak Q1 2026 GDP prints of just 0.1% quarter-over-quarter, softening PMI readings, and rising headline inflation near 3.2% have reinforced expectations of subdued domestic demand and export headwinds. The ECB’s June rate hike and cautious tightening stance further embed tighter financial conditions into market-implied odds, where the 0–1.0% bracket commands a 73.4% probability. Lingering uncertainty around energy normalization and any durable de-escalation keeps a modest 23% chance priced for the 1.0–2.0% range.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado0-1,0% 73.5%
1,0-2,0% 23%
<0% 3.7%
4,0-5,0% 2.7%
$30,355 Vol.
$30,355 Vol.
31 jan 2027
<0%
4%
0-1,0%
74%
1,0-2,0%
23%
2,0-3,0%
1%
3,0-4,0%
<1%
4,0-5,0%
3%
5,0-6,0%
<1%
6,0-7,0%
<1%
7,0%+
<1%
0-1,0% 73.5%
1,0-2,0% 23%
<0% 3.7%
4,0-5,0% 2.7%
$30,355 Vol.
$30,355 Vol.
31 jan 2027
<0%
$1,672 Vol.
4%
0-1,0%
$11,512 Vol.
74%
1,0-2,0%
$7,131 Vol.
23%
2,0-3,0%
$1,180 Vol.
1%
3,0-4,0%
$1,096 Vol.
<1%
4,0-5,0%
$2,203 Vol.
3%
5,0-6,0%
$1,185 Vol.
<1%
6,0-7,0%
$2,648 Vol.
<1%
7,0%+
$1,728 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent energy price shocks tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions have prompted widespread downward revisions to 2026 Eurozone GDP forecasts, with institutions including the ECB, OECD, IMF, and private forecasters converging on 0.8–1.0% growth. Weak Q1 2026 GDP prints of just 0.1% quarter-over-quarter, softening PMI readings, and rising headline inflation near 3.2% have reinforced expectations of subdued domestic demand and export headwinds. The ECB’s June rate hike and cautious tightening stance further embed tighter financial conditions into market-implied odds, where the 0–1.0% bracket commands a 73.4% probability. Lingering uncertainty around energy normalization and any durable de-escalation keeps a modest 23% chance priced for the 1.0–2.0% range.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$30,355Data de Término
31 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent energy price shocks tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions have prompted widespread downward revisions to 2026 Eurozone GDP forecasts, with institutions including the ECB, OECD, IMF, and private forecasters converging on 0.8–1.0% growth. Weak Q1 2026 GDP prints of just 0.1% quarter-over-quarter, softening PMI readings, and rising headline inflation near 3.2% have reinforced expectations of subdued domestic demand and export headwinds. The ECB’s June rate hike and cautious tightening stance further embed tighter financial conditions into market-implied odds, where the 0–1.0% bracket commands a 73.4% probability. Lingering uncertainty around energy normalization and any durable de-escalation keeps a modest 23% chance priced for the 1.0–2.0% range.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$30,355Data de Término
31 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent energy price shocks tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions have prompted widespread downward revisions to 2026 Eurozone GDP forecasts, with institutions including the ECB, OECD, IMF, and private forecasters converging on 0.8–1.0% growth. Weak Q1 2026 GDP prints of just 0.1% quarter-over-quarter, softening PMI readings, and rising headline inflation near 3.2% have reinforced expectations of subdued domestic demand and export headwinds. The ECB’s June rate hike and cautious tightening stance further embed tighter financial conditions into market-implied odds, where the 0–1.0% bracket commands a 73.4% probability. Lingering uncertainty around energy normalization and any durable de-escalation keeps a modest 23% chance priced for the 1.0–2.0% range.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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