Recent July CPI data at 3.4% year-over-year, down from 3.5% in June and aligned with expectations, anchors trader focus for the August print due September 11. Cooling energy prices and subdued core components support probabilities clustering tightly around 3.3% and 3.4%, reflecting uncertainty over whether the disinflation trend holds amid resilient labor markets and lingering tariff effects. Market-implied odds treat these outcomes as near-equally plausible, with modest weight on 3.5% or lower readings contingent on further moderation in goods and shelter inflation. Upcoming August employment and retail sales data could shift sentiment by clarifying demand pressures before the BLS release.