Recent monthly Japan core CPI readings, including the 1.8% year-over-year increase in July 2026 and Tokyo's 1.8% print for August, have anchored trader expectations for subdued 2026 outcomes, with implied probabilities favoring ≤1.9% at 53.4% and 2.0-2.4% at 41.0%. These levels reflect the Bank of Japan's lowered core-core CPI forecast to 2.5% for fiscal 2026, persistent energy subsidies, and only modest pass-through from Middle East-related cost pressures despite yen weakness. Broader trend measures, such as the core-core excluding fresh food and energy at 1.9%, alongside steady labor market conditions and prior base effects, support the consensus that inflation will remain near the lower end of the BOJ's target range through year-end. Key catalysts ahead include the September 17-18 policy meeting and subsequent national CPI releases, which could influence rate path expectations and shift probabilities if underlying price momentum accelerates.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado≤1,9% 53.3%
2.0-2.4% 41%
3.0-3.4% 5.6%
2,5-2,9% 1.5%
$39,690 Vol.
$39,690 Vol.
22 jan 2027
≤1,9%
53%
2.0-2.4%
41%
2,5-2,9%
2%
3.0-3.4%
6%
3,5-3,9%
<1%
4.0%+
<1%
≤1,9% 53.3%
2.0-2.4% 41%
3.0-3.4% 5.6%
2,5-2,9% 1.5%
$39,690 Vol.
$39,690 Vol.
22 jan 2027
≤1,9%
$18,991 Vol.
53%
2.0-2.4%
$11,063 Vol.
41%
2,5-2,9%
$5,421 Vol.
2%
3.0-3.4%
$1,536 Vol.
6%
3,5-3,9%
$1,253 Vol.
<1%
4.0%+
$1,426 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent monthly Japan core CPI readings, including the 1.8% year-over-year increase in July 2026 and Tokyo's 1.8% print for August, have anchored trader expectations for subdued 2026 outcomes, with implied probabilities favoring ≤1.9% at 53.4% and 2.0-2.4% at 41.0%. These levels reflect the Bank of Japan's lowered core-core CPI forecast to 2.5% for fiscal 2026, persistent energy subsidies, and only modest pass-through from Middle East-related cost pressures despite yen weakness. Broader trend measures, such as the core-core excluding fresh food and energy at 1.9%, alongside steady labor market conditions and prior base effects, support the consensus that inflation will remain near the lower end of the BOJ's target range through year-end. Key catalysts ahead include the September 17-18 policy meeting and subsequent national CPI releases, which could influence rate path expectations and shift probabilities if underlying price momentum accelerates.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Volume
$39,690Data de Término
22 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent monthly Japan core CPI readings, including the 1.8% year-over-year increase in July 2026 and Tokyo's 1.8% print for August, have anchored trader expectations for subdued 2026 outcomes, with implied probabilities favoring ≤1.9% at 53.4% and 2.0-2.4% at 41.0%. These levels reflect the Bank of Japan's lowered core-core CPI forecast to 2.5% for fiscal 2026, persistent energy subsidies, and only modest pass-through from Middle East-related cost pressures despite yen weakness. Broader trend measures, such as the core-core excluding fresh food and energy at 1.9%, alongside steady labor market conditions and prior base effects, support the consensus that inflation will remain near the lower end of the BOJ's target range through year-end. Key catalysts ahead include the September 17-18 policy meeting and subsequent national CPI releases, which could influence rate path expectations and shift probabilities if underlying price momentum accelerates.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$39,690Data de Término
22 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly Japan core CPI readings, including the 1.8% year-over-year increase in July 2026 and Tokyo's 1.8% print for August, have anchored trader expectations for subdued 2026 outcomes, with implied probabilities favoring ≤1.9% at 53.4% and 2.0-2.4% at 41.0%. These levels reflect the Bank of Japan's lowered core-core CPI forecast to 2.5% for fiscal 2026, persistent energy subsidies, and only modest pass-through from Middle East-related cost pressures despite yen weakness. Broader trend measures, such as the core-core excluding fresh food and energy at 1.9%, alongside steady labor market conditions and prior base effects, support the consensus that inflation will remain near the lower end of the BOJ's target range through year-end. Key catalysts ahead include the September 17-18 policy meeting and subsequent national CPI releases, which could influence rate path expectations and shift probabilities if underlying price momentum accelerates.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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