Traders assign only a 9% chance of Japanese parliament dissolution occurring in 2026 because the lower house of the Diet was already dissolved in January for the February 8 snap election called by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. The newly seated members now hold standard four-year terms extending into 2030, and the ruling LDP-JIP coalition’s strengthened majority after the vote has produced no signals of early dissolution pressure. With ordinary Diet sessions underway and no major legislative gridlock or leadership challenges reported since February, traders view another dissolution this calendar year as structurally unnecessary and politically unlikely.