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Macro previsões e probabilidades

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Eleição presidencial no Brasil

Eleição presidencial no Brasil

56%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$108M Vol.

$342K today

$10M Liq.

13,004

Ends em 3 meses

O tráfego no Estreito de Ormuz volta ao normal no final de junho?

O tráfego no Estreito de Ormuz volta ao normal no final de junho?

1%

$40M Vol.

$390K today

$268K Liq.

Ends há 1 dia

Aumento da taxa do Fed em 2026?

Aumento da taxa do Fed em 2026?

55%

$3M Vol.

$140K today

$212K Liq.

Ends em 5 meses

Xi Jinping sair antes de 2027?

Xi Jinping sair antes de 2027?

6%

$11M Vol.

$247K Liq.

707

Ends em 6 meses

Inflação de Junho EUA - Anual

Inflação de Junho EUA - Anual

47%

3,8%

$593K Vol.

$169K Liq.

Ends em 14 dias

Crescimento anual do PIB do Reino Unido em 2026

Crescimento anual do PIB do Reino Unido em 2026

44%

1-2%

$28.6K Vol.

$63.2K Liq.

1

Ends em 8 meses

O que a taxa do Fed atingirá antes de 2027?

O que a taxa do Fed atingirá antes de 2027?

27%

↑ 4,25%

$2M Vol.

$183K Liq.

11

Ends em 6 meses

Preço da Dúzia de Ovos em Junho?

Preço da Dúzia de Ovos em Junho?

74%

$2,00–$2,25

$14.7K Vol.

$80.0K Liq.

Ends em 14 dias

Eurozone GDP growth in Q2 2026

Eurozone GDP growth in Q2 2026

34%

0.4-0.7%

$14.0K Vol.

$42.5K Liq.

Ends em 29 dias

Germany GDP growth in Q2 2026?

Germany GDP growth in Q2 2026?

36%

0.4-0.6%

$9.9K Vol.

$47.6K Liq.

Ends em 29 dias

Crescimento anual do PIB da China em 2026

Crescimento anual do PIB da China em 2026

79%

4,0–5,0%

$727K Vol.

$158K Liq.

13

Ends há 5 meses

UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 (QoQ)?

UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 (QoQ)?

20%

0,4–0,5%

$8.3K Vol.

$20.2K Liq.

Ends em cerca de 1 mês

Taxas de Juros do BCE: setembro de 2026

Taxas de Juros do BCE: setembro de 2026

60%

Nenhuma alteração

$14.6K Vol.

$35.3K Liq.

Ends em 2 meses

Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?

Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?

39%

2.5%+

$6.8K Vol.

$19.8K Liq.

Ends em 29 dias

Fed Decision in October?

Fed Decision in October?

65%

No change

$122K Vol.

$160K Liq.

Ends em 4 meses

June Unemployment Rate

June Unemployment Rate

46%

4.3%

$10.0K Vol.

$45.5K Liq.

Ends em 1 dia

Inflação Anual Argentina 2026

Inflação Anual Argentina 2026

48%

30,0-34,9%

$15.7K Vol.

$37.5K Liq.

Ends em 6 meses

Recessão dos EUA até o final de 2026?

Recessão dos EUA até o final de 2026?

13%

$2M Vol.

$31.8K Liq.

69

Ends em 7 meses

Inflação Anual do Canadá 2026

Inflação Anual do Canadá 2026

27%

3,5-3,9%

$19.6K Vol.

$28.2K Liq.

Ends em 7 meses

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?

64%

4.6-4.9%

$101K Vol.

$49.2K Liq.

Ends em 15 dias

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like Macro.

Polymarket currently hosts 55 active markets for Macro that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Eleição presidencial no Brasil”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $167.1M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Xi Jinping sair antes de 2027?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Eleição presidencial no Brasil,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Eleição presidencial no Brasil,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 56% chance to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Macro predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.