Japan’s 10-year government bond yield, recently trading near 3.00% as of mid-September 2026 after touching 3.04%, reflects sustained upward pressure from the Bank of Japan’s ongoing policy normalization. The BOJ raised its short-term policy rate to 1.0% in June and is widely expected to hike to 1.25% at its September 17-18 meeting, driven by inflation risks tied to elevated oil prices and a weaker yen. Additional factors include record fiscal 2027 budget requests exceeding ¥143 trillion, planned consumption-tax relief that could widen deficits, and the Ministry of Finance’s upward revision of long-term borrowing costs to 3.8%. These developments, alongside rising global yields, underpin the 66.3% market-implied probability for a 3.0%+ close by year-end, with traders pricing in continued tightening and fiscal headwinds over the final months of 2026.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado3.0%+ 66.3%
2.8-3.0% 16.4%
2.2-2.4% 4.3%
2.6-2.8% 2.6%
$29,277 Vol.
$29,277 Vol.
30 dez 2026
<2.0%
1%
2.0-2.2%
2%
2.2-2.4%
4%
2.4-2.6%
7%
2.6-2.8%
3%
2.8-3.0%
16%
3.0%+
66%
3.0%+ 66.3%
2.8-3.0% 16.4%
2.2-2.4% 4.3%
2.6-2.8% 2.6%
$29,277 Vol.
$29,277 Vol.
30 dez 2026
<2.0%
$1,360 Vol.
1%
2.0-2.2%
$1,684 Vol.
2%
2.2-2.4%
$1,253 Vol.
4%
2.4-2.6%
$2,552 Vol.
7%
2.6-2.8%
$2,546 Vol.
3%
2.8-3.0%
$8,693 Vol.
16%
3.0%+
$11,189 Vol.
66%
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.Japan’s 10-year government bond yield, recently trading near 3.00% as of mid-September 2026 after touching 3.04%, reflects sustained upward pressure from the Bank of Japan’s ongoing policy normalization. The BOJ raised its short-term policy rate to 1.0% in June and is widely expected to hike to 1.25% at its September 17-18 meeting, driven by inflation risks tied to elevated oil prices and a weaker yen. Additional factors include record fiscal 2027 budget requests exceeding ¥143 trillion, planned consumption-tax relief that could widen deficits, and the Ministry of Finance’s upward revision of long-term borrowing costs to 3.8%. These developments, alongside rising global yields, underpin the 66.3% market-implied probability for a 3.0%+ close by year-end, with traders pricing in continued tightening and fiscal headwinds over the final months of 2026.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Volume
$29,277Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.Japan’s 10-year government bond yield, recently trading near 3.00% as of mid-September 2026 after touching 3.04%, reflects sustained upward pressure from the Bank of Japan’s ongoing policy normalization. The BOJ raised its short-term policy rate to 1.0% in June and is widely expected to hike to 1.25% at its September 17-18 meeting, driven by inflation risks tied to elevated oil prices and a weaker yen. Additional factors include record fiscal 2027 budget requests exceeding ¥143 trillion, planned consumption-tax relief that could widen deficits, and the Ministry of Finance’s upward revision of long-term borrowing costs to 3.8%. These developments, alongside rising global yields, underpin the 66.3% market-implied probability for a 3.0%+ close by year-end, with traders pricing in continued tightening and fiscal headwinds over the final months of 2026.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
Volume
$29,277Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Japan’s 10-year government bond yield, recently trading near 3.00% as of mid-September 2026 after touching 3.04%, reflects sustained upward pressure from the Bank of Japan’s ongoing policy normalization. The BOJ raised its short-term policy rate to 1.0% in June and is widely expected to hike to 1.25% at its September 17-18 meeting, driven by inflation risks tied to elevated oil prices and a weaker yen. Additional factors include record fiscal 2027 budget requests exceeding ¥143 trillion, planned consumption-tax relief that could widen deficits, and the Ministry of Finance’s upward revision of long-term borrowing costs to 3.8%. These developments, alongside rising global yields, underpin the 66.3% market-implied probability for a 3.0%+ close by year-end, with traders pricing in continued tightening and fiscal headwinds over the final months of 2026.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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