With roughly eight days remaining until market resolution, trader sentiment centers on ongoing global seismic monitoring by the USGS, where recent M5.0–6.4 events (including a September 20 M6.4 in Papua New Guinea and an M6.5 in the Aleutians) highlight active subduction zones and transform faults. Short time horizons amplify focus on current clusters, such as the persistent swarm near Santorini and Amorgos in Greece producing frequent M4+ tremors, alongside typical activity along the Ring of Fire in Indonesia and Japan. Magnitude 6.0+ quakes remain statistically infrequent in any narrow window despite elevated background rates in these regions; resolution hinges on precise epicenter location and confirmed USGS magnitude thresholds. Fresh catalog updates and any new aftershock sequences could shift implied probabilities before month-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoOnde ocorrerá um terremoto de magnitude 6,0 + até o final de setembro?
Onde ocorrerá um terremoto de magnitude 6,0 + até o final de setembro?
NOVO
3 out 2026
Japão
28%
Chile
26%
México
21%
Filipinas
21%
Peru
28%
$4,741 Vol.
Japão
$274 Vol.
28%
Chile
$17 Vol.
26%
México
$912 Vol.
21%
Filipinas
$186 Vol.
21%
Peru
$167 Vol.
28%
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between September 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, by October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
Revisions to a reported earthquake's underlying data, such as preferred magnitude and country attribution, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after that earthquake's origin time (ET); revisions made after that time will not be considered. If a reported earthquake still qualifies at the end of its revision period, this market will resolve to "Yes" at that time, without remaining open until October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. If it no longer qualifies at that time, this market will remain open until another qualifying earthquake is reported or the market's end date is reached, whichever comes first.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after October 4, 2026 and will resolve based on the preferred magnitude, country attribution, and timestamp of the event as of the end of its revision period (per the revision rules above), provided that revision period falls within the extension window. If the revision period would extend beyond the extension window, this market will resolve based on the data available at the end of the extension period. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources.
If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".With roughly eight days remaining until market resolution, trader sentiment centers on ongoing global seismic monitoring by the USGS, where recent M5.0–6.4 events (including a September 20 M6.4 in Papua New Guinea and an M6.5 in the Aleutians) highlight active subduction zones and transform faults. Short time horizons amplify focus on current clusters, such as the persistent swarm near Santorini and Amorgos in Greece producing frequent M4+ tremors, alongside typical activity along the Ring of Fire in Indonesia and Japan. Magnitude 6.0+ quakes remain statistically infrequent in any narrow window despite elevated background rates in these regions; resolution hinges on precise epicenter location and confirmed USGS magnitude thresholds. Fresh catalog updates and any new aftershock sequences could shift implied probabilities before month-end.
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between September 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, by October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
Revisions to a reported earthquake's underlying data, such as preferred magnitude and country attribution, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after that earthquake's origin time (ET); revisions made after that time will not be considered. If a reported earthquake still qualifies at the end of its revision period, this market will resolve to "Yes" at that time, without remaining open until October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. If it no longer qualifies at that time, this market will remain open until another qualifying earthquake is reported or the market's end date is reached, whichever comes first.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after October 4, 2026 and will resolve based on the preferred magnitude, country attribution, and timestamp of the event as of the end of its revision period (per the revision rules above), provided that revision period falls within the extension window. If the revision period would extend beyond the extension window, this market will resolve based on the data available at the end of the extension period. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources.
If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
Revisions to a reported earthquake's underlying data, such as preferred magnitude and country attribution, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after that earthquake's origin time (ET); revisions made after that time will not be considered. If a reported earthquake still qualifies at the end of its revision period, this market will resolve to "Yes" at that time, without remaining open until October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. If it no longer qualifies at that time, this market will remain open until another qualifying earthquake is reported or the market's end date is reached, whichever comes first.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after October 4, 2026 and will resolve based on the preferred magnitude, country attribution, and timestamp of the event as of the end of its revision period (per the revision rules above), provided that revision period falls within the extension window. If the revision period would extend beyond the extension window, this market will resolve based on the data available at the end of the extension period. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources.
If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Mercado Aberto: Aug 31, 2026, 7:04 PM ET
Volume
$4,741Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 31, 2026, 7:04 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between September 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, by October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
Revisions to a reported earthquake's underlying data, such as preferred magnitude and country attribution, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after that earthquake's origin time (ET); revisions made after that time will not be considered. If a reported earthquake still qualifies at the end of its revision period, this market will resolve to "Yes" at that time, without remaining open until October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. If it no longer qualifies at that time, this market will remain open until another qualifying earthquake is reported or the market's end date is reached, whichever comes first.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after October 4, 2026 and will resolve based on the preferred magnitude, country attribution, and timestamp of the event as of the end of its revision period (per the revision rules above), provided that revision period falls within the extension window. If the revision period would extend beyond the extension window, this market will resolve based on the data available at the end of the extension period. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources.
If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".With roughly eight days remaining until market resolution, trader sentiment centers on ongoing global seismic monitoring by the USGS, where recent M5.0–6.4 events (including a September 20 M6.4 in Papua New Guinea and an M6.5 in the Aleutians) highlight active subduction zones and transform faults. Short time horizons amplify focus on current clusters, such as the persistent swarm near Santorini and Amorgos in Greece producing frequent M4+ tremors, alongside typical activity along the Ring of Fire in Indonesia and Japan. Magnitude 6.0+ quakes remain statistically infrequent in any narrow window despite elevated background rates in these regions; resolution hinges on precise epicenter location and confirmed USGS magnitude thresholds. Fresh catalog updates and any new aftershock sequences could shift implied probabilities before month-end.
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between September 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, by October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
Revisions to a reported earthquake's underlying data, such as preferred magnitude and country attribution, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after that earthquake's origin time (ET); revisions made after that time will not be considered. If a reported earthquake still qualifies at the end of its revision period, this market will resolve to "Yes" at that time, without remaining open until October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. If it no longer qualifies at that time, this market will remain open until another qualifying earthquake is reported or the market's end date is reached, whichever comes first.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after October 4, 2026 and will resolve based on the preferred magnitude, country attribution, and timestamp of the event as of the end of its revision period (per the revision rules above), provided that revision period falls within the extension window. If the revision period would extend beyond the extension window, this market will resolve based on the data available at the end of the extension period. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources.
If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
Revisions to a reported earthquake's underlying data, such as preferred magnitude and country attribution, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after that earthquake's origin time (ET); revisions made after that time will not be considered. If a reported earthquake still qualifies at the end of its revision period, this market will resolve to "Yes" at that time, without remaining open until October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. If it no longer qualifies at that time, this market will remain open until another qualifying earthquake is reported or the market's end date is reached, whichever comes first.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after October 4, 2026 and will resolve based on the preferred magnitude, country attribution, and timestamp of the event as of the end of its revision period (per the revision rules above), provided that revision period falls within the extension window. If the revision period would extend beyond the extension window, this market will resolve based on the data available at the end of the extension period. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources.
If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$4,741Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 31, 2026, 7:04 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x65070BE91...With roughly eight days remaining until market resolution, trader sentiment centers on ongoing global seismic monitoring by the USGS, where recent M5.0–6.4 events (including a September 20 M6.4 in Papua New Guinea and an M6.5 in the Aleutians) highlight active subduction zones and transform faults. Short time horizons amplify focus on current clusters, such as the persistent swarm near Santorini and Amorgos in Greece producing frequent M4+ tremors, alongside typical activity along the Ring of Fire in Indonesia and Japan. Magnitude 6.0+ quakes remain statistically infrequent in any narrow window despite elevated background rates in these regions; resolution hinges on precise epicenter location and confirmed USGS magnitude thresholds. Fresh catalog updates and any new aftershock sequences could shift implied probabilities before month-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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