Milena Quiroga Romero leads trader consensus in the Baja California Sur gubernatorial race at 46%, ahead of Francisco Pelayo Covarrubias at 27.5% and Christian Agúndez Gómez at 22.5%, reflecting multiple 2026 surveys that place her atop Morena's internal preferences and general-election matchups. Morena maintains the strongest party identification in the state, while Pelayo anchors the main opposition challenge from the PAN. The contest remains fluid because candidate selection processes within Morena and other parties are still underway ahead of the June 2027 election, with sizable undecided shares in polls and limited formal campaigning to date. Recent internal polling gaps and opposition fragmentation have reinforced Quiroga's position, though further consolidation by rivals or shifts in voter priorities could narrow the spread before precampaigns begin in early 2027.