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icon for Quais partidos ganharão pelo menos um assento na próxima eleição da Duma Estatal Russa?

Quais partidos ganharão pelo menos um assento na próxima eleição da Duma Estatal Russa?

icon for Quais partidos ganharão pelo menos um assento na próxima eleição da Duma Estatal Russa?

Quais partidos ganharão pelo menos um assento na próxima eleição da Duma Estatal Russa?

NOVO
20 set 2026
Polymarket

$3,768 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for Rússia Justa – Pelo Verdadeiro (SRZP)

Rússia Justa – Pelo Verdadeiro (SRZP)

$1,389 Vol.

98%

icon for Rodina

Rodina

$755 Vol.

82%

icon for Partido dos Aposentados da Rússia pela Justiça Social

Partido dos Aposentados da Rússia pela Justiça Social

$1,260 Vol.

7%

icon for Partido Ecológico Russo "Os Verdes"

Partido Ecológico Russo "Os Verdes"

$364 Vol.

5%

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed party receives at least one seat in the Russian State Duma as a result of the 2026 Russian parliamentary election. Otherwise, that market will resolve to “No”. Seats will be counted only where the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation attributes them to the named party. Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If a named party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count. If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, each market will resolve to “No”. These markets will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, they will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.The September 18–20, 2026, State Duma election occurs under a mixed electoral system with a 5% party-list threshold and single-mandate districts amid extensive administrative oversight. United Russia maintains a dominant position in candidate selection and recent WCIOM/FOM polling, while the four other current parliamentary parties—CPRF, LDPR, A Just Russia, and New People—consistently poll near or above the threshold and benefit from established regional structures and single-mandate access. Yabloko’s Supreme Court disqualification in August after initial registration eliminated the main potential new entrant. Smaller exempt parties face high barriers, and overall competition has narrowed compared with prior cycles, supporting trader expectations that only the established five parties will secure seats.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed party receives at least one seat in the Russian State Duma as a result of the 2026 Russian parliamentary election. Otherwise, that market will resolve to “No”.

Seats will be counted only where the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation attributes them to the named party. Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If a named party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, each market will resolve to “No”.

These markets will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, they will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed party receives at least one seat in the Russian State Duma as a result of the 2026 Russian parliamentary election. Otherwise, that market will resolve to “No”. Seats will be counted only where the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation attributes them to the named party. Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If a named party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count. If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, each market will resolve to “No”. These markets will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, they will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$3,768
Data de Término
20 set 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 1, 2026, 8:42 PM ET
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed party receives at least one seat in the Russian State Duma as a result of the 2026 Russian parliamentary election. Otherwise, that market will resolve to “No”. Seats will be counted only where the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation attributes them to the named party. Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If a named party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count. If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, each market will resolve to “No”. These markets will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, they will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.The September 18–20, 2026, State Duma election occurs under a mixed electoral system with a 5% party-list threshold and single-mandate districts amid extensive administrative oversight. United Russia maintains a dominant position in candidate selection and recent WCIOM/FOM polling, while the four other current parliamentary parties—CPRF, LDPR, A Just Russia, and New People—consistently poll near or above the threshold and benefit from established regional structures and single-mandate access. Yabloko’s Supreme Court disqualification in August after initial registration eliminated the main potential new entrant. Smaller exempt parties face high barriers, and overall competition has narrowed compared with prior cycles, supporting trader expectations that only the established five parties will secure seats.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed party receives at least one seat in the Russian State Duma as a result of the 2026 Russian parliamentary election. Otherwise, that market will resolve to “No”.

Seats will be counted only where the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation attributes them to the named party. Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If a named party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, each market will resolve to “No”.

These markets will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, they will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed party receives at least one seat in the Russian State Duma as a result of the 2026 Russian parliamentary election. Otherwise, that market will resolve to “No”. Seats will be counted only where the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation attributes them to the named party. Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If a named party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count. If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, each market will resolve to “No”. These markets will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, they will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$3,768
Data de Término
20 set 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 1, 2026, 8:42 PM ET

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Quais partidos ganharão pelo menos um assento na próxima eleição da Duma Estatal Russa?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Rússia Justa – Pelo Verdadeiro (SRZP)" at 98%, followed by "Rodina" at 82%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 98¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Quais partidos ganharão pelo menos um assento na próxima eleição da Duma Estatal Russa?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 1, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Quais partidos ganharão pelo menos um assento na próxima eleição da Duma Estatal Russa?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Quais partidos ganharão pelo menos um assento na próxima eleição da Duma Estatal Russa?" is "Rússia Justa – Pelo Verdadeiro (SRZP)" at 98%, meaning the market assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Rodina" at 82%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Quais partidos ganharão pelo menos um assento na próxima eleição da Duma Estatal Russa?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.