Recent polling averages for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election place Shas, the Sephardic ultra-Orthodox party led by Aryeh Deri, at roughly 8 seats. This aligns with the market's leading 8-9 outcome at 39 percent implied probability, as multiple September surveys from outlets including Channel 13, Maariv, and Zman Yisrael project the party in the 7-10 range amid stable Haredi voter turnout. The Netanyahu-aligned bloc overall polls near 51-55 seats, limiting upward pressure on Shas while the 3.25 percent electoral threshold and competition within the religious right cap downside risk below 6 seats. Trader consensus reflects these consistent aggregates rather than isolated swings, with 10-11 or 6-7 bands each under 20 percent.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado8-9 38%
6-7 18%
10-11 17%
12+ 12%
NOVO
NOVO
30 nov 2026
<6
8%
6-7
18%
8-9
38%
10-11
20%
12+
12%
8-9 38%
6-7 18%
10-11 17%
12+ 12%
NOVO
NOVO
30 nov 2026
<6
$564 Vol.
8%
6-7
$1,412 Vol.
18%
8-9
$979 Vol.
38%
10-11
$750 Vol.
20%
12+
$1,690 Vol.
12%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Shas in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Shas in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling averages for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election place Shas, the Sephardic ultra-Orthodox party led by Aryeh Deri, at roughly 8 seats. This aligns with the market's leading 8-9 outcome at 39 percent implied probability, as multiple September surveys from outlets including Channel 13, Maariv, and Zman Yisrael project the party in the 7-10 range amid stable Haredi voter turnout. The Netanyahu-aligned bloc overall polls near 51-55 seats, limiting upward pressure on Shas while the 3.25 percent electoral threshold and competition within the religious right cap downside risk below 6 seats. Trader consensus reflects these consistent aggregates rather than isolated swings, with 10-11 or 6-7 bands each under 20 percent.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Shas in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Shas in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Shas in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Shas in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Mercado Aberto: Sep 4, 2026, 6:15 PM ET
Volume
$5,395Data de Término
27 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 4, 2026, 6:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Shas in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Shas in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling averages for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election place Shas, the Sephardic ultra-Orthodox party led by Aryeh Deri, at roughly 8 seats. This aligns with the market's leading 8-9 outcome at 39 percent implied probability, as multiple September surveys from outlets including Channel 13, Maariv, and Zman Yisrael project the party in the 7-10 range amid stable Haredi voter turnout. The Netanyahu-aligned bloc overall polls near 51-55 seats, limiting upward pressure on Shas while the 3.25 percent electoral threshold and competition within the religious right cap downside risk below 6 seats. Trader consensus reflects these consistent aggregates rather than isolated swings, with 10-11 or 6-7 bands each under 20 percent.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Shas in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Shas in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Shas in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Shas in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$5,395Data de Término
27 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 4, 2026, 6:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election place Shas, the Sephardic ultra-Orthodox party led by Aryeh Deri, at roughly 8 seats. This aligns with the market's leading 8-9 outcome at 39 percent implied probability, as multiple September surveys from outlets including Channel 13, Maariv, and Zman Yisrael project the party in the 7-10 range amid stable Haredi voter turnout. The Netanyahu-aligned bloc overall polls near 51-55 seats, limiting upward pressure on Shas while the 3.25 percent electoral threshold and competition within the religious right cap downside risk below 6 seats. Trader consensus reflects these consistent aggregates rather than isolated swings, with 10-11 or 6-7 bands each under 20 percent.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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