**Recent polling averages and structural factors position Ra'am's vote share most likely in the 4–5.5% range.** As of mid-September 2026, multiple surveys (Kantar/Kan 11, Maariv/Lazar, Channel 13, i24NEWS/Direct Polls, and others) project Ra'am at 4–6 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, consistent with vote shares clustered around 4–5%. The 3.25% electoral threshold and seat-conversion mechanics make outcomes below 3.25% or above 5.5% less probable under current trends. Ra'am, running independently under Mansour Abbas after prior coalition experience, benefits from a September 12 surplus-vote agreement with the Joint List (Hadash–Ta’al), which reduces wasted Arab votes and supports combined Arab representation near 11–12 seats. The addition of former Yesh Atid MK Yoav Segalovitz as a Jewish candidate on the slate aims to broaden appeal, though polls show limited immediate shifts in support. Right-wing efforts to disqualify the party have not altered its ballot status. Trader consensus reflected in the market bins aligns closely with these stable polling aggregates, with the 4–4.75% bin leading due to consistent recent readings near the middle of Ra'am's projected range. Upcoming events within the October 27 election window, including final campaign dynamics and turnout among Arab voters, remain the primary variables that could adjust probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado4-4,75% 38%
3,25-4% 25%
<3,25% 19%
4,75-5,5% 18%
NOVO
NOVO
30 nov 2026
<3,25%
17%
3,25-4%
18%
4-4,75%
38%
4,75-5,5%
30%
5,5%+
5%
4-4,75% 38%
3,25-4% 25%
<3,25% 19%
4,75-5,5% 18%
NOVO
NOVO
30 nov 2026
<3,25%
$294 Vol.
17%
3,25-4%
$258 Vol.
18%
4-4,75%
$972 Vol.
38%
4,75-5,5%
$192 Vol.
30%
5,5%+
$175 Vol.
5%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).**Recent polling averages and structural factors position Ra'am's vote share most likely in the 4–5.5% range.** As of mid-September 2026, multiple surveys (Kantar/Kan 11, Maariv/Lazar, Channel 13, i24NEWS/Direct Polls, and others) project Ra'am at 4–6 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, consistent with vote shares clustered around 4–5%. The 3.25% electoral threshold and seat-conversion mechanics make outcomes below 3.25% or above 5.5% less probable under current trends.
Ra'am, running independently under Mansour Abbas after prior coalition experience, benefits from a September 12 surplus-vote agreement with the Joint List (Hadash–Ta’al), which reduces wasted Arab votes and supports combined Arab representation near 11–12 seats. The addition of former Yesh Atid MK Yoav Segalovitz as a Jewish candidate on the slate aims to broaden appeal, though polls show limited immediate shifts in support. Right-wing efforts to disqualify the party have not altered its ballot status.
Trader consensus reflected in the market bins aligns closely with these stable polling aggregates, with the 4–4.75% bin leading due to consistent recent readings near the middle of Ra'am's projected range. Upcoming events within the October 27 election window, including final campaign dynamics and turnout among Arab voters, remain the primary variables that could adjust probabilities.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Mercado Aberto: Sep 8, 2026, 4:19 PM ET
Volume
$1,892Data de Término
27 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 8, 2026, 4:19 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).**Recent polling averages and structural factors position Ra'am's vote share most likely in the 4–5.5% range.** As of mid-September 2026, multiple surveys (Kantar/Kan 11, Maariv/Lazar, Channel 13, i24NEWS/Direct Polls, and others) project Ra'am at 4–6 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, consistent with vote shares clustered around 4–5%. The 3.25% electoral threshold and seat-conversion mechanics make outcomes below 3.25% or above 5.5% less probable under current trends.
Ra'am, running independently under Mansour Abbas after prior coalition experience, benefits from a September 12 surplus-vote agreement with the Joint List (Hadash–Ta’al), which reduces wasted Arab votes and supports combined Arab representation near 11–12 seats. The addition of former Yesh Atid MK Yoav Segalovitz as a Jewish candidate on the slate aims to broaden appeal, though polls show limited immediate shifts in support. Right-wing efforts to disqualify the party have not altered its ballot status.
Trader consensus reflected in the market bins aligns closely with these stable polling aggregates, with the 4–4.75% bin leading due to consistent recent readings near the middle of Ra'am's projected range. Upcoming events within the October 27 election window, including final campaign dynamics and turnout among Arab voters, remain the primary variables that could adjust probabilities.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volume
$1,892Data de Término
27 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 8, 2026, 4:19 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent polling averages and structural factors position Ra'am's vote share most likely in the 4–5.5% range.** As of mid-September 2026, multiple surveys (Kantar/Kan 11, Maariv/Lazar, Channel 13, i24NEWS/Direct Polls, and others) project Ra'am at 4–6 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, consistent with vote shares clustered around 4–5%. The 3.25% electoral threshold and seat-conversion mechanics make outcomes below 3.25% or above 5.5% less probable under current trends. Ra'am, running independently under Mansour Abbas after prior coalition experience, benefits from a September 12 surplus-vote agreement with the Joint List (Hadash–Ta’al), which reduces wasted Arab votes and supports combined Arab representation near 11–12 seats. The addition of former Yesh Atid MK Yoav Segalovitz as a Jewish candidate on the slate aims to broaden appeal, though polls show limited immediate shifts in support. Right-wing efforts to disqualify the party have not altered its ballot status. Trader consensus reflected in the market bins aligns closely with these stable polling aggregates, with the 4–4.75% bin leading due to consistent recent readings near the middle of Ra'am's projected range. Upcoming events within the October 27 election window, including final campaign dynamics and turnout among Arab voters, remain the primary variables that could adjust probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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