Skip to main content
icon for Argentina Presidential Election Winner
Política·Argentina

Argentina Presidential Election Winner

icon for Argentina Presidential Election Winner
Política·Argentina

Argentina Presidential Election Winner

Javier Milei 50%

Axel Kicillof 33%

Dante Gebel 5.1%

Mauricio Macri 3.8%

Polymarket

$65,713 Vol.

Javier Milei 50%

Axel Kicillof 33%

Dante Gebel 5.1%

Mauricio Macri 3.8%

Polymarket

$65,713 Vol.

icon for Javier Milei

Javier Milei

$25,789 Vol.

50%

icon for Axel Kicillof

Axel Kicillof

$4,477 Vol.

33%

icon for Dante Gebel

Dante Gebel

$5,026 Vol.

5%

icon for Mauricio Macri

Mauricio Macri

$5,145 Vol.

4%

icon for Myriam Bregman

Myriam Bregman

$4,964 Vol.

3%

icon for Sergio Massa

Sergio Massa

$3,444 Vol.

3%

icon for Juan Grabois

Juan Grabois

$3,929 Vol.

2%

icon for Victoria Villarruel

Victoria Villarruel

$3,305 Vol.

1%

icon for Juan Schiaretti

Juan Schiaretti

$3,813 Vol.

1%

icon for Facundo Manes

Facundo Manes

$3,178 Vol.

<1%

icon for Esteban Bullrich

Esteban Bullrich

$2,643 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).President Javier Milei's 49.5% implied probability as the 2027 presidential election winner reflects trader consensus on his incumbency advantage and recent polling leads, though a narrowing margin over Buenos Aires Governor Axel Kicillof at 33% underscores economic headwinds. Milei's approval rating plunged to a record low of 36% by late March 2026 amid rising unemployment and corruption allegations against allies, eroding his earlier 20-point lead from January polls. Kicillof has consolidated Peronist support by heading the party's Buenos Aires province branch and positioning himself amid opposition reorganization. Recent surveys, including RDT Consultores in May, show Milei at 32-40% versus Kicillof's 17-34% in first-round scenarios, with a potential runoff in November if no candidate secures 45% or a 10-point lead. Economic data and PASO primaries in August 2027 loom as key catalysts.

A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election.

This market includes any potential second round.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
Volume
$65,713
Data de Término
24 out 2027
Mercado Aberto
May 1, 2026, 5:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).President Javier Milei's 49.5% implied probability as the 2027 presidential election winner reflects trader consensus on his incumbency advantage and recent polling leads, though a narrowing margin over Buenos Aires Governor Axel Kicillof at 33% underscores economic headwinds. Milei's approval rating plunged to a record low of 36% by late March 2026 amid rising unemployment and corruption allegations against allies, eroding his earlier 20-point lead from January polls. Kicillof has consolidated Peronist support by heading the party's Buenos Aires province branch and positioning himself amid opposition reorganization. Recent surveys, including RDT Consultores in May, show Milei at 32-40% versus Kicillof's 17-34% in first-round scenarios, with a potential runoff in November if no candidate secures 45% or a 10-point lead. Economic data and PASO primaries in August 2027 loom as key catalysts.

A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election.

This market includes any potential second round.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
Volume
$65,713
Data de Término
24 out 2027
Mercado Aberto
May 1, 2026, 5:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Argentina Presidential Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Javier Milei" at 50%, followed by "Axel Kicillof" at 33%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 50¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Argentina Presidential Election Winner" has generated $65.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Argentina Presidential Election Winner," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Argentina Presidential Election Winner" is "Javier Milei" at 50%, meaning the market assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Axel Kicillof" at 33%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Argentina Presidential Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.