The by-election on 8 October follows Keir Starmer’s resignation, pitting Labour’s Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali against Green Party leader Zack Polanski and 13 other candidates in a seat where local elections showed Labour and Greens closely matched. Traders have priced “another candidate wins” highest at 50 percent, reflecting the fragmented field, Green strength in urban and student areas, and potential vote splitting among opposition parties. Labour margin options cluster around narrower victories, consistent with models projecting a tight race near four points. Recent candidate selections and the short campaign window ahead of nominations closing have reinforced uncertainty over whether Labour can secure a comfortable majority or if Green or another contender prevails.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHolborn e St Pancras Por Eleição: Voto Compartilhar Margem de Vitória
Holborn e St Pancras Por Eleição: Voto Compartilhar Margem de Vitória
Trabalhista 15%+ 39%
Trabalhista 10-15% 24%
Trabalhista 0-5% 17%
Trabalhista 5-10% 14%
NOVO
NOVO
8 out 2026
Trabalhista 15%+
39%
Trabalhista 10-15%
24%
Trabalhista 5-10%
14%
Trabalhista 0-5%
17%
Verde 0-5%
3%
Verde 5-10%
6%
Verde 10-15%
5%
Verde 15%+
2%
Trabalhista 15%+ 39%
Trabalhista 10-15% 24%
Trabalhista 0-5% 17%
Trabalhista 5-10% 14%
NOVO
NOVO
8 out 2026
Trabalhista 15%+
$1,444 Vol.
39%
Trabalhista 10-15%
$140 Vol.
24%
Trabalhista 5-10%
$202 Vol.
14%
Trabalhista 0-5%
$164 Vol.
17%
Verde 0-5%
$132 Vol.
3%
Verde 5-10%
$135 Vol.
6%
Verde 10-15%
$610 Vol.
5%
Verde 15%+
$92 Vol.
2%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The by-election on 8 October follows Keir Starmer’s resignation, pitting Labour’s Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali against Green Party leader Zack Polanski and 13 other candidates in a seat where local elections showed Labour and Greens closely matched. Traders have priced “another candidate wins” highest at 50 percent, reflecting the fragmented field, Green strength in urban and student areas, and potential vote splitting among opposition parties. Labour margin options cluster around narrower victories, consistent with models projecting a tight race near four points. Recent candidate selections and the short campaign window ahead of nominations closing have reinforced uncertainty over whether Labour can secure a comfortable majority or if Green or another contender prevails.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Mercado Aberto: Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ET
Volume
$2,920Data de Término
8 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The by-election on 8 October follows Keir Starmer’s resignation, pitting Labour’s Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali against Green Party leader Zack Polanski and 13 other candidates in a seat where local elections showed Labour and Greens closely matched. Traders have priced “another candidate wins” highest at 50 percent, reflecting the fragmented field, Green strength in urban and student areas, and potential vote splitting among opposition parties. Labour margin options cluster around narrower victories, consistent with models projecting a tight race near four points. Recent candidate selections and the short campaign window ahead of nominations closing have reinforced uncertainty over whether Labour can secure a comfortable majority or if Green or another contender prevails.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volume
$2,920Data de Término
8 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The by-election on 8 October follows Keir Starmer’s resignation, pitting Labour’s Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali against Green Party leader Zack Polanski and 13 other candidates in a seat where local elections showed Labour and Greens closely matched. Traders have priced “another candidate wins” highest at 50 percent, reflecting the fragmented field, Green strength in urban and student areas, and potential vote splitting among opposition parties. Labour margin options cluster around narrower victories, consistent with models projecting a tight race near four points. Recent candidate selections and the short campaign window ahead of nominations closing have reinforced uncertainty over whether Labour can secure a comfortable majority or if Green or another contender prevails.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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