The recent formation of Andy Burnham's cabinet in late July 2026, following Keir Starmer's exit amid Labour factional splits, stands as the primary driver of trader sentiment. The transition involved extensive sackings of prior allies and appointments of figures who had distanced themselves from the previous leadership, injecting immediate uncertainty into ministerial tenure. With the ministry only weeks old, "Other" leads at 50% as no single departure appears imminent. Shabana Mahmood's 22.5% reflects her high-profile retention as home secretary despite earlier internal divisions over leadership timelines, while Angela Eagle at 13.5% and others like John Healey and Chris Bryant tie to their roles in the reshuffle or prior experience. No major resignations or new disputes have surfaced in the past month to shift these implied probabilities.