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Geopolitics·UK Labour Leadership

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)

icon for Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)
Geopolitics·UK Labour Leadership

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)

dez 31

dez 31

None before 2027 44%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea 43%

Albanese - Australia PM 43%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President 43%

Polymarket
NOVO

None before 2027 44%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea 43%

Albanese - Australia PM 43%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President 43%

Polymarket
NOVO

None before 2027

$0 Vol.

44%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$22 Vol.

43%

Albanese - Australia PM

$0 Vol.

43%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$0 Vol.

43%

Lecornu - France PM

$0 Vol.

42%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$0 Vol.

42%

Putin - Russia President

$0 Vol.

42%

Macron - France President

$0 Vol.

41%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$45 Vol.

41%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$0 Vol.

41%

Newsom - California Governor

$55 Vol.

41%

Milei - Argentina President

$0 Vol.

40%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$55 Vol.

40%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$56 Vol.

35%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$55 Vol.

35%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$55 Vol.

35%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$55 Vol.

35%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$55 Vol.

35%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$55 Vol.

34%

Merz - German Chancellor

$28 Vol.

34%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$32 Vol.

33%

Trump - USA President

$25 Vol.

22%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The market for the next leader removed from power before 2027 stays tightly bunched because most listed figures hold fixed terms or institutional positions extending well into 2027 or later, with no confirmed early elections, constitutional crises, or health events in the past month that would shift removal odds. Trader consensus around 44-45% for “none” and the top individual names reflects this stability, balanced against low-probability tail risks such as sudden cabinet collapses, legislative no-confidence votes, or external shocks. Recent polling aggregates and official statements show incumbents like Trump, Macron, and Erdoğan maintaining support levels consistent with their full terms, while others face routine coalition negotiations or scheduled votes that have not yet produced decisive momentum. Separation could occur through verified developments including snap parliamentary dissolutions, major corruption rulings, or sudden vacancies within the next six months, which would allow traders to reassess individual probabilities relative to the broad field.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$571
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jun 30, 2026, 10:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The market for the next leader removed from power before 2027 stays tightly bunched because most listed figures hold fixed terms or institutional positions extending well into 2027 or later, with no confirmed early elections, constitutional crises, or health events in the past month that would shift removal odds. Trader consensus around 44-45% for “none” and the top individual names reflects this stability, balanced against low-probability tail risks such as sudden cabinet collapses, legislative no-confidence votes, or external shocks. Recent polling aggregates and official statements show incumbents like Trump, Macron, and Erdoğan maintaining support levels consistent with their full terms, while others face routine coalition negotiations or scheduled votes that have not yet produced decisive momentum. Separation could occur through verified developments including snap parliamentary dissolutions, major corruption rulings, or sudden vacancies within the next six months, which would allow traders to reassess individual probabilities relative to the broad field.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$571
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jun 30, 2026, 10:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 22 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "None before 2027" at 45%, followed by "Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea" at 43%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 45¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 30, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)," browse the 22 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)" is "None before 2027" at 45%, meaning the market assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea" at 43%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.