**Trader consensus heavily favors no further Trump Cabinet departures before 2027 (62%), reflecting relative stability after earlier turnover.** Multiple Cabinet-level exits occurred earlier in the term, including Kristi Noem (Homeland Security), Pam Bondi (Attorney General), Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Labor), and Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence), driven by performance issues, scandals, or personal circumstances. Additional White House staff departures, such as press secretary Karoline Leavitt, added to perceptions of churn through mid-2026. Recent developments point to greater continuity. As of mid-September 2026, no new high-profile Cabinet vacancies have emerged. Susie Wiles, the chief of staff, publicly confirmed she is cancer-free following an earlier diagnosis, removing a potential near-term exit risk. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has faced congressional scrutiny and past operational controversies but retains strong presidential backing, limiting immediate departure odds. Other listed figures, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Mike Waltz (now serving as UN ambassador), and Scott Bessent, show no fresh catalysts such as confirmed conflicts, investigations, or resignation signals in the past month. Broader context includes elevated overall political appointee turnover—nearly one-quarter of non-Senate-confirmed roles have turned over—but Senate-confirmed Cabinet positions have seen fewer changes recently. Cabinet members have focused on domestic travel and midterm messaging rather than internal upheaval. With midterms approaching and no acute triggers like major policy reversals or legal developments tied to specific secretaries, markets price low single-digit probabilities for any individual as the next to depart, consistent with a period of consolidation ahead of 2027.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoNone before 2027 61.9%
Pete Hegseth 8.3%
Susie Wiles 8.2%
Mike Waltz 6.8%
$69,267 Vol.
$69,267 Vol.
31 dez 2026
None before 2027
62%
Pete Hegseth
8%
Susie Wiles
8%
Mike Waltz
7%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
6%
Scott Bessent
4%
Doug Burgum
3%
Brooke Rollins
2%
John Ratcliffe
2%
Russell T. Vought
2%
Marco Rubio
2%
J.D. Vance
1%
Sean Duffy
1%
Scott Turner
1%
Chris Wright
1%
Linda McMahon
1%
Jamieson Greer
1%
Kelly Loeffler
1%
Howard Lutnick
1%
Doug Collins
1%
Lee Zeldin
<1%
None before 2027 61.9%
Pete Hegseth 8.3%
Susie Wiles 8.2%
Mike Waltz 6.8%
$69,267 Vol.
$69,267 Vol.
31 dez 2026
None before 2027
$27,041 Vol.
62%
Pete Hegseth
$2,535 Vol.
8%
Susie Wiles
$3,930 Vol.
8%
Mike Waltz
$1,000 Vol.
7%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$19,359 Vol.
6%
Scott Bessent
$2,976 Vol.
4%
Doug Burgum
$1,125 Vol.
3%
Brooke Rollins
$934 Vol.
2%
John Ratcliffe
$716 Vol.
2%
Russell T. Vought
$695 Vol.
2%
Marco Rubio
$688 Vol.
2%
J.D. Vance
$730 Vol.
1%
Sean Duffy
$818 Vol.
1%
Scott Turner
$489 Vol.
1%
Chris Wright
$888 Vol.
1%
Linda McMahon
$1,094 Vol.
1%
Jamieson Greer
$682 Vol.
1%
Kelly Loeffler
$961 Vol.
1%
Howard Lutnick
$1,018 Vol.
1%
Doug Collins
$792 Vol.
1%
Lee Zeldin
$797 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.**Trader consensus heavily favors no further Trump Cabinet departures before 2027 (62%), reflecting relative stability after earlier turnover.** Multiple Cabinet-level exits occurred earlier in the term, including Kristi Noem (Homeland Security), Pam Bondi (Attorney General), Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Labor), and Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence), driven by performance issues, scandals, or personal circumstances. Additional White House staff departures, such as press secretary Karoline Leavitt, added to perceptions of churn through mid-2026.
Recent developments point to greater continuity. As of mid-September 2026, no new high-profile Cabinet vacancies have emerged. Susie Wiles, the chief of staff, publicly confirmed she is cancer-free following an earlier diagnosis, removing a potential near-term exit risk. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has faced congressional scrutiny and past operational controversies but retains strong presidential backing, limiting immediate departure odds. Other listed figures, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Mike Waltz (now serving as UN ambassador), and Scott Bessent, show no fresh catalysts such as confirmed conflicts, investigations, or resignation signals in the past month.
Broader context includes elevated overall political appointee turnover—nearly one-quarter of non-Senate-confirmed roles have turned over—but Senate-confirmed Cabinet positions have seen fewer changes recently. Cabinet members have focused on domestic travel and midterm messaging rather than internal upheaval. With midterms approaching and no acute triggers like major policy reversals or legal developments tied to specific secretaries, markets price low single-digit probabilities for any individual as the next to depart, consistent with a period of consolidation ahead of 2027.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$69,267Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.**Trader consensus heavily favors no further Trump Cabinet departures before 2027 (62%), reflecting relative stability after earlier turnover.** Multiple Cabinet-level exits occurred earlier in the term, including Kristi Noem (Homeland Security), Pam Bondi (Attorney General), Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Labor), and Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence), driven by performance issues, scandals, or personal circumstances. Additional White House staff departures, such as press secretary Karoline Leavitt, added to perceptions of churn through mid-2026.
Recent developments point to greater continuity. As of mid-September 2026, no new high-profile Cabinet vacancies have emerged. Susie Wiles, the chief of staff, publicly confirmed she is cancer-free following an earlier diagnosis, removing a potential near-term exit risk. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has faced congressional scrutiny and past operational controversies but retains strong presidential backing, limiting immediate departure odds. Other listed figures, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Mike Waltz (now serving as UN ambassador), and Scott Bessent, show no fresh catalysts such as confirmed conflicts, investigations, or resignation signals in the past month.
Broader context includes elevated overall political appointee turnover—nearly one-quarter of non-Senate-confirmed roles have turned over—but Senate-confirmed Cabinet positions have seen fewer changes recently. Cabinet members have focused on domestic travel and midterm messaging rather than internal upheaval. With midterms approaching and no acute triggers like major policy reversals or legal developments tied to specific secretaries, markets price low single-digit probabilities for any individual as the next to depart, consistent with a period of consolidation ahead of 2027.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$69,267Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus heavily favors no further Trump Cabinet departures before 2027 (62%), reflecting relative stability after earlier turnover.** Multiple Cabinet-level exits occurred earlier in the term, including Kristi Noem (Homeland Security), Pam Bondi (Attorney General), Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Labor), and Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence), driven by performance issues, scandals, or personal circumstances. Additional White House staff departures, such as press secretary Karoline Leavitt, added to perceptions of churn through mid-2026. Recent developments point to greater continuity. As of mid-September 2026, no new high-profile Cabinet vacancies have emerged. Susie Wiles, the chief of staff, publicly confirmed she is cancer-free following an earlier diagnosis, removing a potential near-term exit risk. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has faced congressional scrutiny and past operational controversies but retains strong presidential backing, limiting immediate departure odds. Other listed figures, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Mike Waltz (now serving as UN ambassador), and Scott Bessent, show no fresh catalysts such as confirmed conflicts, investigations, or resignation signals in the past month. Broader context includes elevated overall political appointee turnover—nearly one-quarter of non-Senate-confirmed roles have turned over—but Senate-confirmed Cabinet positions have seen fewer changes recently. Cabinet members have focused on domestic travel and midterm messaging rather than internal upheaval. With midterms approaching and no acute triggers like major policy reversals or legal developments tied to specific secretaries, markets price low single-digit probabilities for any individual as the next to depart, consistent with a period of consolidation ahead of 2027.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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