This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.The Trump administration has seen rapid early turnover among senior officials in its second term, with three Cabinet secretaries departing in quick succession by late April 2026. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, Attorney General Pam Bondi, and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer each left amid reports of performance concerns, policy frictions, and internal pressures, replaced by new appointees such as Markwayne Mullin and Todd Blanche. Additional exits have occurred among National Security Council staff, military leaders, and other executive branch roles since January 2025, driven by shifting priorities including immigration enforcement and foreign policy developments. These patterns reflect the administration's history of frequent personnel changes, creating ongoing uncertainty about which officials may remain through 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
The Trump administration has seen rapid early turnover among senior officials in its second term, with three Cabinet secretaries departing in quick succession by late April 2026. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, Attorney General Pam Bondi, and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer each left amid reports of performance concerns, policy frictions, and internal pressures, replaced by new appointees such as Markwayne Mullin and Todd Blanche. Additional exits have occurred among National Security Council staff, military leaders, and other executive branch roles since January 2025, driven by shifting priorities including immigration enforcement and foreign policy developments. These patterns reflect the administration's history of frequent personnel changes, creating ongoing uncertainty about which officials may remain through 2026.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
May 5 2026
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth censures Senator Mark Kelly over military video
Pete Hegseth dips to 37%4%
Pete Hegseth censured Senator Mark Kelly for participating in a video urging troops to resist unlawful orders, escalating political tensions and affecting Hegseth’s market price.
Apr 2 2026
Pam Bondi announces departure as Attorney General amid legal challenges
Susie Wiles jumps to 39%5%
Attorney General Pam Bondi announced her departure following court rulings that challenged the legality of several Trump-appointed prosecutors, including herself. This event influenced the market prices for Bondi and related figures like Lee Zeldin.
Mar 10 2026
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick linked to Jeffrey Epstein in released files
Howard Lutnick drops to 28%8%
Documents released by the Justice Department revealed Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick planned a visit to Jeffrey Epstein’s private island in 2012, contradicting prior statements. This association led to calls for his resignation and affected his market price.
Feb 27 2026
Trump administration takes punitive action against AI company Anthropic
Pete Hegseth surges to 41%17%
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and the Trump administration sought to declare Anthropic a supply chain risk over a contract dispute, leading to a federal judge blocking the action. White House chief of staff Susie Wiles met with Anthropic's CEO to discuss AI technology, impacting their market prices.
Feb 6 2026
Trump’s racist post about Obamas deleted after backlash
Susie Wiles jumps to 39%5%
President Trump deleted a racist social media post about the Obamas after bipartisan backlash, with White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt defending the pro-family environment in the White House. This event influenced perceptions of Susie Wiles and the administration's image, affecting her market price.
Jan 30 2026
FBI search of Georgia election offices cites years-old fraud claims
Tulsi Gabbard rises to 40%1%
The FBI obtained a search warrant for Fulton County election offices based on long-discredited claims of fraud in the 2020 election, initiating a high-profile investigation. Tulsi Gabbard's presence at the search raised concerns about politicization and affected her market price.
Dec 30 2025
Howard Lutnick’s name appears in lawsuit over FBI agent firings
Howard Lutnick jumps to 28%7%
The lawsuit cited Director Kash Patel’s role in firing agents, indirectly implicating Lutnick, a senior advisor, and raising questions about his future in the administration, nudging his price upward.
Dec 22 2025
Kristi Noem announces DHS fraud investigation in Minneapolis
Kristi Noem surges to 65%15%
Noem’s public announcement of a DHS fraud probe linked her directly to a major enforcement action, increasing speculation that she might be reassigned or step down, lifting her departure odds.
Dec 20 2025
Tulsi Gabbard appears in FBI’s Georgia election‑office search
Tulsi Gabbard surges to 42%15%
Gabbard’s presence at the high‑profile search tied her directly to a controversial FBI operation, raising doubts about her staying in the administration and pushing her market price up.
Dec 15 2025
FBI appoints co‑deputy director after Bongino’s departure
Kash Patel surges to 78%20%
The appointment of Christopher Raia as co‑deputy director signaled a shift in FBI leadership, increasing expectations that Patel’s role could be diminished, further lifting Patel’s departure probability.
Dec 2 2025
Kristi Noem announces DHS fraud investigation in Minneapolis
Kristi Noem rises to 51%1%
As Secretary of Homeland Security, Kristi Noem disclosed a fraud probe targeting a large childcare fraud scheme in Minneapolis, signaling active involvement in enforcement and increasing speculation about her tenure in the administration.
Dec 1 2025
FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino announces resignation plan
Kash Patel surges to 63%24%
Bongino said he will resign next month, prompting speculation about instability in the FBI under Director Kash Patel and raising expectations that Patel may be replaced, boosting odds of Patel’s departure.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.The Trump administration has seen rapid early turnover among senior officials in its second term, with three Cabinet secretaries departing in quick succession by late April 2026. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, Attorney General Pam Bondi, and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer each left amid reports of performance concerns, policy frictions, and internal pressures, replaced by new appointees such as Markwayne Mullin and Todd Blanche. Additional exits have occurred among National Security Council staff, military leaders, and other executive branch roles since January 2025, driven by shifting priorities including immigration enforcement and foreign policy developments. These patterns reflect the administration's history of frequent personnel changes, creating ongoing uncertainty about which officials may remain through 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
The Trump administration has seen rapid early turnover among senior officials in its second term, with three Cabinet secretaries departing in quick succession by late April 2026. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, Attorney General Pam Bondi, and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer each left amid reports of performance concerns, policy frictions, and internal pressures, replaced by new appointees such as Markwayne Mullin and Todd Blanche. Additional exits have occurred among National Security Council staff, military leaders, and other executive branch roles since January 2025, driven by shifting priorities including immigration enforcement and foreign policy developments. These patterns reflect the administration's history of frequent personnel changes, creating ongoing uncertainty about which officials may remain through 2026.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
May 5 2026
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth censures Senator Mark Kelly over military video
Pete Hegseth dips to 37%4%
Pete Hegseth censured Senator Mark Kelly for participating in a video urging troops to resist unlawful orders, escalating political tensions and affecting Hegseth’s market price.
Apr 2 2026
Pam Bondi announces departure as Attorney General amid legal challenges
Susie Wiles jumps to 39%5%
Attorney General Pam Bondi announced her departure following court rulings that challenged the legality of several Trump-appointed prosecutors, including herself. This event influenced the market prices for Bondi and related figures like Lee Zeldin.
Mar 10 2026
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick linked to Jeffrey Epstein in released files
Howard Lutnick drops to 28%8%
Documents released by the Justice Department revealed Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick planned a visit to Jeffrey Epstein’s private island in 2012, contradicting prior statements. This association led to calls for his resignation and affected his market price.
Feb 27 2026
Trump administration takes punitive action against AI company Anthropic
Pete Hegseth surges to 41%17%
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and the Trump administration sought to declare Anthropic a supply chain risk over a contract dispute, leading to a federal judge blocking the action. White House chief of staff Susie Wiles met with Anthropic's CEO to discuss AI technology, impacting their market prices.
Feb 6 2026
Trump’s racist post about Obamas deleted after backlash
Susie Wiles jumps to 39%5%
President Trump deleted a racist social media post about the Obamas after bipartisan backlash, with White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt defending the pro-family environment in the White House. This event influenced perceptions of Susie Wiles and the administration's image, affecting her market price.
Jan 30 2026
FBI search of Georgia election offices cites years-old fraud claims
Tulsi Gabbard rises to 40%1%
The FBI obtained a search warrant for Fulton County election offices based on long-discredited claims of fraud in the 2020 election, initiating a high-profile investigation. Tulsi Gabbard's presence at the search raised concerns about politicization and affected her market price.
Dec 30 2025
Howard Lutnick’s name appears in lawsuit over FBI agent firings
Howard Lutnick jumps to 28%7%
The lawsuit cited Director Kash Patel’s role in firing agents, indirectly implicating Lutnick, a senior advisor, and raising questions about his future in the administration, nudging his price upward.
Dec 22 2025
Kristi Noem announces DHS fraud investigation in Minneapolis
Kristi Noem surges to 65%15%
Noem’s public announcement of a DHS fraud probe linked her directly to a major enforcement action, increasing speculation that she might be reassigned or step down, lifting her departure odds.
Dec 20 2025
Tulsi Gabbard appears in FBI’s Georgia election‑office search
Tulsi Gabbard surges to 42%15%
Gabbard’s presence at the high‑profile search tied her directly to a controversial FBI operation, raising doubts about her staying in the administration and pushing her market price up.
Dec 15 2025
FBI appoints co‑deputy director after Bongino’s departure
Kash Patel surges to 78%20%
The appointment of Christopher Raia as co‑deputy director signaled a shift in FBI leadership, increasing expectations that Patel’s role could be diminished, further lifting Patel’s departure probability.
Dec 2 2025
Kristi Noem announces DHS fraud investigation in Minneapolis
Kristi Noem rises to 51%1%
As Secretary of Homeland Security, Kristi Noem disclosed a fraud probe targeting a large childcare fraud scheme in Minneapolis, signaling active involvement in enforcement and increasing speculation about her tenure in the administration.
Dec 1 2025
FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino announces resignation plan
Kash Patel surges to 63%24%
Bongino said he will resign next month, prompting speculation about instability in the FBI under Director Kash Patel and raising expectations that Patel may be replaced, boosting odds of Patel’s departure.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions
"Quem deixará o governo Trump antes de 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 20 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Pam Bondi" at 100%, followed by "Dan Bongino" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "Quem deixará o governo Trump antes de 2027?" has generated $1.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "Quem deixará o governo Trump antes de 2027?," browse the 20 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The current frontrunner for "Quem deixará o governo Trump antes de 2027?" is "Pam Bondi" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Dan Bongino" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.
The resolution rules for "Quem deixará o governo Trump antes de 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Quem deixará o governo Trump antes de 2027?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.
Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $1.2 million traded on “Quem deixará o governo Trump antes de 2027?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.
To place your first trade on "Quem deixará o governo Trump antes de 2027?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.
On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 100¢ for "Pam Bondi" in the "Quem deixará o governo Trump antes de 2027?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 100% chance that "Pam Bondi" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 100¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 0¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.
The "Quem deixará o governo Trump antes de 2027?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Dec 31, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.
The "Quem deixará o governo Trump antes de 2027?" market has an active community of 76 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Quem deixará o governo Trump antes de 2027?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions