In New York’s 26 House districts, trader consensus centers on Democrats securing 19–21 seats under the existing congressional map for the November 2026 election. This positioning stems from the failure of state court efforts to redraw the Republican-held NY-11 district before the cycle, with the U.S. Supreme Court staying the order and preserving the status quo. Most districts remain solidly partisan, while a handful of competitive seats—such as NY-17 held by Republican Mike Lawler and several Long Island and Hudson Valley races—drive the narrow range of likely outcomes. Open seats from Democratic retirements in NY-7 and NY-12, alongside Republican Elise Stefanik’s departure from NY-21, add limited uncertainty but have not shifted the overall balance. National midterm dynamics and primary results expected by late June further support the current distribution of probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado20 39%
19 28%
21+ 22%
18 9%
NOVO
NOVO
3 nov 2026
<16
2%
16
5%
17
5%
18
9%
19
28%
20
39%
21+
22%
20 39%
19 28%
21+ 22%
18 9%
NOVO
NOVO
3 nov 2026
<16
$124 Vol.
2%
16
$83 Vol.
5%
17
$348 Vol.
5%
18
$63 Vol.
9%
19
$554 Vol.
28%
20
$431 Vol.
39%
21+
$329 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in New York in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All New York US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.In New York’s 26 House districts, trader consensus centers on Democrats securing 19–21 seats under the existing congressional map for the November 2026 election. This positioning stems from the failure of state court efforts to redraw the Republican-held NY-11 district before the cycle, with the U.S. Supreme Court staying the order and preserving the status quo. Most districts remain solidly partisan, while a handful of competitive seats—such as NY-17 held by Republican Mike Lawler and several Long Island and Hudson Valley races—drive the narrow range of likely outcomes. Open seats from Democratic retirements in NY-7 and NY-12, alongside Republican Elise Stefanik’s departure from NY-21, add limited uncertainty but have not shifted the overall balance. National midterm dynamics and primary results expected by late June further support the current distribution of probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in New York in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All New York US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All New York US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 11, 2026, 10:14 AM ET
Volume
$1,931Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 11, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in New York in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All New York US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.In New York’s 26 House districts, trader consensus centers on Democrats securing 19–21 seats under the existing congressional map for the November 2026 election. This positioning stems from the failure of state court efforts to redraw the Republican-held NY-11 district before the cycle, with the U.S. Supreme Court staying the order and preserving the status quo. Most districts remain solidly partisan, while a handful of competitive seats—such as NY-17 held by Republican Mike Lawler and several Long Island and Hudson Valley races—drive the narrow range of likely outcomes. Open seats from Democratic retirements in NY-7 and NY-12, alongside Republican Elise Stefanik’s departure from NY-21, add limited uncertainty but have not shifted the overall balance. National midterm dynamics and primary results expected by late June further support the current distribution of probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in New York in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All New York US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All New York US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,931Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 11, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...In New York’s 26 House districts, trader consensus centers on Democrats securing 19–21 seats under the existing congressional map for the November 2026 election. This positioning stems from the failure of state court efforts to redraw the Republican-held NY-11 district before the cycle, with the U.S. Supreme Court staying the order and preserving the status quo. Most districts remain solidly partisan, while a handful of competitive seats—such as NY-17 held by Republican Mike Lawler and several Long Island and Hudson Valley races—drive the narrow range of likely outcomes. Open seats from Democratic retirements in NY-7 and NY-12, alongside Republican Elise Stefanik’s departure from NY-21, add limited uncertainty but have not shifted the overall balance. National midterm dynamics and primary results expected by late June further support the current distribution of probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRelacionado
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