Texas Republicans' mid-decade redistricting map, enacted in 2025 and upheld by the Supreme Court for 2026 use, targets several Democratic-held districts and forms the central driver behind trader expectations of 10-11 Democratic seats. The lines consolidate urban and minority voters while altering South Texas and Dallas-Fort Worth districts, with some analysts projecting a net Republican gain of up to five seats from the prior 13 Democratic holdings. Offsetting factors include a national generic ballot favoring Democrats, full Democratic candidate recruitment across all 38 Texas districts for the first time, and potential Latino voter shifts in competitive areas such as the 15th and 28th districts. Retirements among Democratic incumbents add uncertainty, while historical midterm patterns and polling trends keep the range between single-digit losses and modest holds closely contested among traders.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado11 29%
10 17%
9 15%
12 11%
NOVO
NOVO
3 nov 2026
<8
5%
8
9%
9
15%
10
17%
11
28%
12
28%
13
5%
14+
5%
11 29%
10 17%
9 15%
12 11%
NOVO
NOVO
3 nov 2026
<8
$20 Vol.
5%
8
$210 Vol.
9%
9
$185 Vol.
15%
10
$60 Vol.
17%
11
$167 Vol.
28%
12
$40 Vol.
28%
13
$20 Vol.
5%
14+
$20 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Texas in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Texas US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Texas Republicans' mid-decade redistricting map, enacted in 2025 and upheld by the Supreme Court for 2026 use, targets several Democratic-held districts and forms the central driver behind trader expectations of 10-11 Democratic seats. The lines consolidate urban and minority voters while altering South Texas and Dallas-Fort Worth districts, with some analysts projecting a net Republican gain of up to five seats from the prior 13 Democratic holdings. Offsetting factors include a national generic ballot favoring Democrats, full Democratic candidate recruitment across all 38 Texas districts for the first time, and potential Latino voter shifts in competitive areas such as the 15th and 28th districts. Retirements among Democratic incumbents add uncertainty, while historical midterm patterns and polling trends keep the range between single-digit losses and modest holds closely contested among traders.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Texas in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Texas US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Texas US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 11, 2026, 10:14 AM ET
Volume
$722Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 11, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Texas in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Texas US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Texas Republicans' mid-decade redistricting map, enacted in 2025 and upheld by the Supreme Court for 2026 use, targets several Democratic-held districts and forms the central driver behind trader expectations of 10-11 Democratic seats. The lines consolidate urban and minority voters while altering South Texas and Dallas-Fort Worth districts, with some analysts projecting a net Republican gain of up to five seats from the prior 13 Democratic holdings. Offsetting factors include a national generic ballot favoring Democrats, full Democratic candidate recruitment across all 38 Texas districts for the first time, and potential Latino voter shifts in competitive areas such as the 15th and 28th districts. Retirements among Democratic incumbents add uncertainty, while historical midterm patterns and polling trends keep the range between single-digit losses and modest holds closely contested among traders.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Texas in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Texas US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Texas US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$722Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 11, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Texas Republicans' mid-decade redistricting map, enacted in 2025 and upheld by the Supreme Court for 2026 use, targets several Democratic-held districts and forms the central driver behind trader expectations of 10-11 Democratic seats. The lines consolidate urban and minority voters while altering South Texas and Dallas-Fort Worth districts, with some analysts projecting a net Republican gain of up to five seats from the prior 13 Democratic holdings. Offsetting factors include a national generic ballot favoring Democrats, full Democratic candidate recruitment across all 38 Texas districts for the first time, and potential Latino voter shifts in competitive areas such as the 15th and 28th districts. Retirements among Democratic incumbents add uncertainty, while historical midterm patterns and polling trends keep the range between single-digit losses and modest holds closely contested among traders.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRelacionado
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