**Arizona’s nine House districts feature a current 6-3 Republican edge, with Democrats holding three reliably Democratic seats.** The two most competitive contests—open AZ-1 and AZ-6—largely determine the final Democratic total. In AZ-1, Democrat Amish Shah faces Republican Jay Feely in a toss-up or lean-Democratic race following the retirement of the prior GOP incumbent; recent forecasts and limited polling show Shah with a narrow edge. In AZ-6, incumbent Republican Juan Ciscomani trails or runs even with Democrat JoAnna Mendoza in multiple spring and summer surveys, keeping the seat highly fluid. The remaining districts appear safe for their respective parties. With roughly seven weeks until the November 3 election, trader pricing centers on 5 Democratic seats as the most probable outcome, reflecting a likely pickup in AZ-1 and a toss-up result in AZ-6, while 4 or 6 remain plausible depending on late shifts in those two races.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado5 53%
4 25.4%
6 17%
3 5.1%
$20,393 Vol.
$20,393 Vol.
2 nov 2026
<3
<1%
3
5%
4
25%
5
53%
6
17%
7+
1%
5 53%
4 25.4%
6 17%
3 5.1%
$20,393 Vol.
$20,393 Vol.
2 nov 2026
<3
$1,284 Vol.
<1%
3
$6,317 Vol.
5%
4
$4,964 Vol.
25%
5
$4,929 Vol.
53%
6
$1,873 Vol.
17%
7+
$1,026 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Arizona in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.**Arizona’s nine House districts feature a current 6-3 Republican edge, with Democrats holding three reliably Democratic seats.** The two most competitive contests—open AZ-1 and AZ-6—largely determine the final Democratic total. In AZ-1, Democrat Amish Shah faces Republican Jay Feely in a toss-up or lean-Democratic race following the retirement of the prior GOP incumbent; recent forecasts and limited polling show Shah with a narrow edge. In AZ-6, incumbent Republican Juan Ciscomani trails or runs even with Democrat JoAnna Mendoza in multiple spring and summer surveys, keeping the seat highly fluid. The remaining districts appear safe for their respective parties. With roughly seven weeks until the November 3 election, trader pricing centers on 5 Democratic seats as the most probable outcome, reflecting a likely pickup in AZ-1 and a toss-up result in AZ-6, while 4 or 6 remain plausible depending on late shifts in those two races.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Arizona in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 11, 2026, 10:12 AM ET
Volume
$20,393Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 11, 2026, 10:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Arizona in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.**Arizona’s nine House districts feature a current 6-3 Republican edge, with Democrats holding three reliably Democratic seats.** The two most competitive contests—open AZ-1 and AZ-6—largely determine the final Democratic total. In AZ-1, Democrat Amish Shah faces Republican Jay Feely in a toss-up or lean-Democratic race following the retirement of the prior GOP incumbent; recent forecasts and limited polling show Shah with a narrow edge. In AZ-6, incumbent Republican Juan Ciscomani trails or runs even with Democrat JoAnna Mendoza in multiple spring and summer surveys, keeping the seat highly fluid. The remaining districts appear safe for their respective parties. With roughly seven weeks until the November 3 election, trader pricing centers on 5 Democratic seats as the most probable outcome, reflecting a likely pickup in AZ-1 and a toss-up result in AZ-6, while 4 or 6 remain plausible depending on late shifts in those two races.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Arizona in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$20,393Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 11, 2026, 10:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Arizona’s nine House districts feature a current 6-3 Republican edge, with Democrats holding three reliably Democratic seats.** The two most competitive contests—open AZ-1 and AZ-6—largely determine the final Democratic total. In AZ-1, Democrat Amish Shah faces Republican Jay Feely in a toss-up or lean-Democratic race following the retirement of the prior GOP incumbent; recent forecasts and limited polling show Shah with a narrow edge. In AZ-6, incumbent Republican Juan Ciscomani trails or runs even with Democrat JoAnna Mendoza in multiple spring and summer surveys, keeping the seat highly fluid. The remaining districts appear safe for their respective parties. With roughly seven weeks until the November 3 election, trader pricing centers on 5 Democratic seats as the most probable outcome, reflecting a likely pickup in AZ-1 and a toss-up result in AZ-6, while 4 or 6 remain plausible depending on late shifts in those two races.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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