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Política·Primárias

FL-09 Vencedor da primária republicana

icon for FL-09 Vencedor da primária republicana
Política·Primárias

FL-09 Vencedor da primária republicana

Ben Butler 48.4%

Thomas Chalifoux 27%

Dan Green 8%

Jorge Martinez 3.9%

Polymarket

$71,086 Vol.

Ben Butler 48.4%

Thomas Chalifoux 27%

Dan Green 8%

Jorge Martinez 3.9%

Polymarket

$71,086 Vol.

icon for Ben Butler

Ben Butler

$6,867 Vol.

48%

icon for Thomas Chalifoux

Thomas Chalifoux

$19,730 Vol.

27%

icon for Dan Green

Dan Green

$8,085 Vol.

8%

icon for Jorge Martinez

Jorge Martinez

$8,202 Vol.

4%

icon for Justin Story

Justin Story

$10,869 Vol.

<1%

icon for Howard Steven Rance

Howard Steven Rance

$9,320 Vol.

<1%

icon for Jorge Malavet

Jorge Malavet

$4,156 Vol.

<1%

icon for Marcus Carter

Marcus Carter

$2,507 Vol.

<1%

icon for Steve Rance

Steve Rance

$1,350 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Ben Butler leads the FL-09 Republican primary market at 48% implied probability due to recent endorsements from the Florida Airboat Association, local firefighters, and Young Republicans leaders, alongside strong early fundraising of over $335,000 and a television ad buy that boosted visibility ahead of the August 18 primary. The redrawn district, which now leans Republican after spring map changes, has drawn a crowded field including Thomas Chalifoux at 27%, who previously served as the 2024 GOP nominee with military and school board experience but trails in recent polling momentum. Dan Green at 8% benefits from defense background but shows limited traction. Trader consensus reflects Butler's local ranching ties and endorsement surge outpacing Chalifoux's self-funding advantage in the final week.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$71,086
Data de Término
18 ago 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Ben Butler leads the FL-09 Republican primary market at 48% implied probability due to recent endorsements from the Florida Airboat Association, local firefighters, and Young Republicans leaders, alongside strong early fundraising of over $335,000 and a television ad buy that boosted visibility ahead of the August 18 primary. The redrawn district, which now leans Republican after spring map changes, has drawn a crowded field including Thomas Chalifoux at 27%, who previously served as the 2024 GOP nominee with military and school board experience but trails in recent polling momentum. Dan Green at 8% benefits from defense background but shows limited traction. Trader consensus reflects Butler's local ranching ties and endorsement surge outpacing Chalifoux's self-funding advantage in the final week.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$71,086
Data de Término
18 ago 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"FL-09 Vencedor da primária republicana" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ben Butler" at 48%, followed by "Thomas Chalifoux" at 27%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 48¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 48% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "FL-09 Vencedor da primária republicana" has generated $71.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 23, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "FL-09 Vencedor da primária republicana," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "FL-09 Vencedor da primária republicana" is "Ben Butler" at 48%, meaning the market assigns a 48% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Thomas Chalifoux" at 27%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "FL-09 Vencedor da primária republicana" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.