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icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Politics·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Politics·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Flávio Bolsonaro 79%

Renan Santos 11.9%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 3.1%

Michelle Bolsonaro 2.1%

Polymarket

$3,843,634 Vol.

Flávio Bolsonaro 79%

Renan Santos 11.9%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 3.1%

Michelle Bolsonaro 2.1%

Polymarket

$3,843,634 Vol.

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro

$91,818 Vol.

79%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$1,020,882 Vol.

12%

icon for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$103,367 Vol.

3%

icon for Michelle Bolsonaro

Michelle Bolsonaro

$95,247 Vol.

2%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$312,489 Vol.

1%

icon for Fernando Haddad

Fernando Haddad

$669,720 Vol.

1%

icon for Camilo Santana

Camilo Santana

$69,758 Vol.

1%

icon for Geraldo Alckmin

Geraldo Alckmin

$133,002 Vol.

1%

icon for Romeu Zema

Romeu Zema

$272,058 Vol.

<1%

icon for Jair Bolsonaro

Jair Bolsonaro

$100,277 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eduardo Bolsonaro

Eduardo Bolsonaro

$78,536 Vol.

<1%

icon for Aldo Rebelo

Aldo Rebelo

$41,380 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tarcisio de Freitas

Tarcisio de Freitas

$134,003 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ratinho Júnior

Ratinho Júnior

$651,207 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eduardo Leite

Eduardo Leite

$49,669 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tereza Cristina

Tereza Cristina

$16,278 Vol.

<1%

icon for Helder Barbalho

Helder Barbalho

$3,942 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a dominant position in trader expectations for second place in Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first-round presidential vote because he has consolidated the core right-wing and evangelical voter base behind the Liberal Party candidacy, following his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement and ineligibility. Recent polling from June shows him trailing incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by roughly 10 points in first-round scenarios while outpacing fragmented alternatives such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos. A May Banco Master film-funding scandal temporarily eroded Flávio’s numbers and lifted Lula’s runoff margins, yet no rival has capitalized enough to displace him as the primary opposition standard-bearer. Renan Santos draws modest youth and activist support but remains distant in aggregates, while other listed figures register negligible shares amid the two-round system’s emphasis on the leading pair.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$3,843,634
Data de Término
4 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a dominant position in trader expectations for second place in Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first-round presidential vote because he has consolidated the core right-wing and evangelical voter base behind the Liberal Party candidacy, following his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement and ineligibility. Recent polling from June shows him trailing incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by roughly 10 points in first-round scenarios while outpacing fragmented alternatives such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos. A May Banco Master film-funding scandal temporarily eroded Flávio’s numbers and lifted Lula’s runoff margins, yet no rival has capitalized enough to displace him as the primary opposition standard-bearer. Renan Santos draws modest youth and activist support but remains distant in aggregates, while other listed figures register negligible shares amid the two-round system’s emphasis on the leading pair.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$3,843,634
Data de Término
4 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 17 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Flávio Bolsonaro" at 79%, followed by "Renan Santos" at 12%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 79¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 79% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place" has generated $3.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 11, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place," browse the 17 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place" is "Flávio Bolsonaro" at 79%, meaning the market assigns a 79% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Renan Santos" at 12%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.