Traders see closely matched implied probabilities across moderate-to-strong bins for Brazil's Q2 2026 QoQ GDP growth, reflecting uncertainty over the pace of moderation after Q1's robust 1.1% expansion. Elevated May inflation at 4.72%, driven by energy price spikes amid geopolitical supply disruptions, is eroding real household income and consumption while the central bank maintains restrictive policy. This tempers the fiscal boost and investment momentum seen earlier, though a solid labor market and potential export gains from commodities provide offsetting support. The balanced odds across 0.3–1.5% ranges underscore sensitivity to incoming data on inflation trajectories and monetary signals before the September release.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado≥1,5% 51%
1,2%–1,4% 48%
0,3%–0,5% 47%
<0,0% 31%
NOVO
NOVO
<0,0%
22%
0,0%–0,2%
22%
0,3%–0,5%
47%
0,6%–0,8%
49%
0,9%–1,1%
36%
1,2%–1,4%
48%
≥1,5%
51%
≥1,5% 51%
1,2%–1,4% 48%
0,3%–0,5% 47%
<0,0% 31%
NOVO
NOVO
<0,0%
$106 Vol.
22%
0,0%–0,2%
$70 Vol.
22%
0,3%–0,5%
$70 Vol.
47%
0,6%–0,8%
$69 Vol.
49%
0,9%–1,1%
$69 Vol.
36%
1,2%–1,4%
$101 Vol.
48%
≥1,5%
$101 Vol.
51%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTraders see closely matched implied probabilities across moderate-to-strong bins for Brazil's Q2 2026 QoQ GDP growth, reflecting uncertainty over the pace of moderation after Q1's robust 1.1% expansion. Elevated May inflation at 4.72%, driven by energy price spikes amid geopolitical supply disruptions, is eroding real household income and consumption while the central bank maintains restrictive policy. This tempers the fiscal boost and investment momentum seen earlier, though a solid labor market and potential export gains from commodities provide offsetting support. The balanced odds across 0.3–1.5% ranges underscore sensitivity to incoming data on inflation trajectories and monetary signals before the September release.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Mercado Aberto: Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Volume
$587Mercado Aberto
Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTraders see closely matched implied probabilities across moderate-to-strong bins for Brazil's Q2 2026 QoQ GDP growth, reflecting uncertainty over the pace of moderation after Q1's robust 1.1% expansion. Elevated May inflation at 4.72%, driven by energy price spikes amid geopolitical supply disruptions, is eroding real household income and consumption while the central bank maintains restrictive policy. This tempers the fiscal boost and investment momentum seen earlier, though a solid labor market and potential export gains from commodities provide offsetting support. The balanced odds across 0.3–1.5% ranges underscore sensitivity to incoming data on inflation trajectories and monetary signals before the September release.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$587Mercado Aberto
Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see closely matched implied probabilities across moderate-to-strong bins for Brazil's Q2 2026 QoQ GDP growth, reflecting uncertainty over the pace of moderation after Q1's robust 1.1% expansion. Elevated May inflation at 4.72%, driven by energy price spikes amid geopolitical supply disruptions, is eroding real household income and consumption while the central bank maintains restrictive policy. This tempers the fiscal boost and investment momentum seen earlier, though a solid labor market and potential export gains from commodities provide offsetting support. The balanced odds across 0.3–1.5% ranges underscore sensitivity to incoming data on inflation trajectories and monetary signals before the September release.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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