Strong consensus around positive U.S. GDP growth near 2.0–2.2% for full-year 2026, as projected by the Congressional Budget Office and major forecasters, underpins the 96% market-implied odds against contraction. Key drivers include the lagged effects of the 2025 reconciliation act boosting consumer spending and business investment, alongside AI-related capital expenditures that have shifted growth toward investment-led expansion. Resilient labor markets, Fed policy easing, and above-trend momentum from prior quarters have kept recession probabilities low. Tail risks remain from sharper tariff impacts on trade flows, an abrupt AI valuation correction that could reverse wealth effects, or renewed geopolitical tensions that might disrupt supply chains and tip growth negative in late 2026.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoCrescimento negativo do PIB em 2026?
Crescimento negativo do PIB em 2026?
Sim
4% chance
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
29 jan 2027
Sim
4% chance
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
29 jan 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong consensus around positive U.S. GDP growth near 2.0–2.2% for full-year 2026, as projected by the Congressional Budget Office and major forecasters, underpins the 96% market-implied odds against contraction. Key drivers include the lagged effects of the 2025 reconciliation act boosting consumer spending and business investment, alongside AI-related capital expenditures that have shifted growth toward investment-led expansion. Resilient labor markets, Fed policy easing, and above-trend momentum from prior quarters have kept recession probabilities low. Tail risks remain from sharper tariff impacts on trade flows, an abrupt AI valuation correction that could reverse wealth effects, or renewed geopolitical tensions that might disrupt supply chains and tip growth negative in late 2026.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$32,234Data de Término
29 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong consensus around positive U.S. GDP growth near 2.0–2.2% for full-year 2026, as projected by the Congressional Budget Office and major forecasters, underpins the 96% market-implied odds against contraction. Key drivers include the lagged effects of the 2025 reconciliation act boosting consumer spending and business investment, alongside AI-related capital expenditures that have shifted growth toward investment-led expansion. Resilient labor markets, Fed policy easing, and above-trend momentum from prior quarters have kept recession probabilities low. Tail risks remain from sharper tariff impacts on trade flows, an abrupt AI valuation correction that could reverse wealth effects, or renewed geopolitical tensions that might disrupt supply chains and tip growth negative in late 2026.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$32,234Data de Término
29 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong consensus around positive U.S. GDP growth near 2.0–2.2% for full-year 2026, as projected by the Congressional Budget Office and major forecasters, underpins the 96% market-implied odds against contraction. Key drivers include the lagged effects of the 2025 reconciliation act boosting consumer spending and business investment, alongside AI-related capital expenditures that have shifted growth toward investment-led expansion. Resilient labor markets, Fed policy easing, and above-trend momentum from prior quarters have kept recession probabilities low. Tail risks remain from sharper tariff impacts on trade flows, an abrupt AI valuation correction that could reverse wealth effects, or renewed geopolitical tensions that might disrupt supply chains and tip growth negative in late 2026.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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