**Persistent geopolitical risks and slow resumption of shipping flows justify the 76.5% market-implied probability that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will not return to pre-disruption norms by June 30, 2026.** The strait has experienced near-paralysis since late February 2026 amid U.S.-Iran conflict, with daily transits falling to a handful versus the typical ~100 vessels. A preliminary U.S.-Iran agreement announced in mid-June has produced some initial ship movements and a decline in oil prices, yet industry data from Kpler and others show only limited, one-time exits by stranded tankers rather than sustained normalization. High residual threats—including mines, IRGC coordination requirements, and war-risk insurance premiums—continue to deter broad commercial traffic. With just 12 days remaining until the resolution date, the compressed timeline and ongoing logistical hurdles make a full rebound improbable. Comparable prediction markets such as Kalshi assign low odds of normalization even by August, underscoring trader consensus that de-risking and volume recovery will extend well beyond June. These skin-in-the-game probabilities reflect aggregated assessments of verifiable shipping data, recent diplomatic signals, and persistent security constraints rather than guaranteed outcomes.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
$40,895,716 Vol.
$40,895,716 Vol.
30 jun 2026
$40,895,716 Vol.
$40,895,716 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Persistent geopolitical risks and slow resumption of shipping flows justify the 76.5% market-implied probability that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will not return to pre-disruption norms by June 30, 2026.**
The strait has experienced near-paralysis since late February 2026 amid U.S.-Iran conflict, with daily transits falling to a handful versus the typical ~100 vessels. A preliminary U.S.-Iran agreement announced in mid-June has produced some initial ship movements and a decline in oil prices, yet industry data from Kpler and others show only limited, one-time exits by stranded tankers rather than sustained normalization. High residual threats—including mines, IRGC coordination requirements, and war-risk insurance premiums—continue to deter broad commercial traffic.
With just 12 days remaining until the resolution date, the compressed timeline and ongoing logistical hurdles make a full rebound improbable. Comparable prediction markets such as Kalshi assign low odds of normalization even by August, underscoring trader consensus that de-risking and volume recovery will extend well beyond June. These skin-in-the-game probabilities reflect aggregated assessments of verifiable shipping data, recent diplomatic signals, and persistent security constraints rather than guaranteed outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
Volume
$40,895,716Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Persistent geopolitical risks and slow resumption of shipping flows justify the 76.5% market-implied probability that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will not return to pre-disruption norms by June 30, 2026.**
The strait has experienced near-paralysis since late February 2026 amid U.S.-Iran conflict, with daily transits falling to a handful versus the typical ~100 vessels. A preliminary U.S.-Iran agreement announced in mid-June has produced some initial ship movements and a decline in oil prices, yet industry data from Kpler and others show only limited, one-time exits by stranded tankers rather than sustained normalization. High residual threats—including mines, IRGC coordination requirements, and war-risk insurance premiums—continue to deter broad commercial traffic.
With just 12 days remaining until the resolution date, the compressed timeline and ongoing logistical hurdles make a full rebound improbable. Comparable prediction markets such as Kalshi assign low odds of normalization even by August, underscoring trader consensus that de-risking and volume recovery will extend well beyond June. These skin-in-the-game probabilities reflect aggregated assessments of verifiable shipping data, recent diplomatic signals, and persistent security constraints rather than guaranteed outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$40,895,716Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Persistent geopolitical risks and slow resumption of shipping flows justify the 76.5% market-implied probability that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will not return to pre-disruption norms by June 30, 2026.** The strait has experienced near-paralysis since late February 2026 amid U.S.-Iran conflict, with daily transits falling to a handful versus the typical ~100 vessels. A preliminary U.S.-Iran agreement announced in mid-June has produced some initial ship movements and a decline in oil prices, yet industry data from Kpler and others show only limited, one-time exits by stranded tankers rather than sustained normalization. High residual threats—including mines, IRGC coordination requirements, and war-risk insurance premiums—continue to deter broad commercial traffic. With just 12 days remaining until the resolution date, the compressed timeline and ongoing logistical hurdles make a full rebound improbable. Comparable prediction markets such as Kalshi assign low odds of normalization even by August, underscoring trader consensus that de-risking and volume recovery will extend well beyond June. These skin-in-the-game probabilities reflect aggregated assessments of verifiable shipping data, recent diplomatic signals, and persistent security constraints rather than guaranteed outcomes.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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