Ongoing military tensions and de facto restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to anchor trader sentiment toward a "No" outcome at 71.5% implied probability, as commercial transits remain at roughly 5% of pre-conflict norms with only single-digit daily passages recorded through mid-May 2026. Persistent U.S.-Iran naval dynamics, including escort operations and IRGC oversight, have sustained high insurance premiums and prompted shippers to reroute or delay voyages, limiting throughput to a fraction of the typical 125–140 daily movements. Recent data from vessel tracking firms show minimal recovery since the February escalation, with analysts citing unresolved security risks as the key barrier to normalization by June 30. Market participants are monitoring upcoming diplomatic signals and any shift in naval postures for potential catalysts that could accelerate or further delay a return to baseline traffic levels.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoO tráfego no Estreito de Ormuz volta ao normal no final de junho?
O tráfego no Estreito de Ormuz volta ao normal no final de junho?
Sim
$6,381,755 Vol.
$6,381,755 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sim
$6,381,755 Vol.
$6,381,755 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing military tensions and de facto restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to anchor trader sentiment toward a "No" outcome at 71.5% implied probability, as commercial transits remain at roughly 5% of pre-conflict norms with only single-digit daily passages recorded through mid-May 2026. Persistent U.S.-Iran naval dynamics, including escort operations and IRGC oversight, have sustained high insurance premiums and prompted shippers to reroute or delay voyages, limiting throughput to a fraction of the typical 125–140 daily movements. Recent data from vessel tracking firms show minimal recovery since the February escalation, with analysts citing unresolved security risks as the key barrier to normalization by June 30. Market participants are monitoring upcoming diplomatic signals and any shift in naval postures for potential catalysts that could accelerate or further delay a return to baseline traffic levels.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
Volume
$6,381,755Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing military tensions and de facto restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to anchor trader sentiment toward a "No" outcome at 71.5% implied probability, as commercial transits remain at roughly 5% of pre-conflict norms with only single-digit daily passages recorded through mid-May 2026. Persistent U.S.-Iran naval dynamics, including escort operations and IRGC oversight, have sustained high insurance premiums and prompted shippers to reroute or delay voyages, limiting throughput to a fraction of the typical 125–140 daily movements. Recent data from vessel tracking firms show minimal recovery since the February escalation, with analysts citing unresolved security risks as the key barrier to normalization by June 30. Market participants are monitoring upcoming diplomatic signals and any shift in naval postures for potential catalysts that could accelerate or further delay a return to baseline traffic levels.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$6,382,018Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing military tensions and de facto restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to anchor trader sentiment toward a "No" outcome at 71.5% implied probability, as commercial transits remain at roughly 5% of pre-conflict norms with only single-digit daily passages recorded through mid-May 2026. Persistent U.S.-Iran naval dynamics, including escort operations and IRGC oversight, have sustained high insurance premiums and prompted shippers to reroute or delay voyages, limiting throughput to a fraction of the typical 125–140 daily movements. Recent data from vessel tracking firms show minimal recovery since the February escalation, with analysts citing unresolved security risks as the key barrier to normalization by June 30. Market participants are monitoring upcoming diplomatic signals and any shift in naval postures for potential catalysts that could accelerate or further delay a return to baseline traffic levels.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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