**Trader consensus strongly favors "No" at 88.5% because the U.S. has not launched additional invasions since the January 2026 targeted military operation in Venezuela.** That short operation (codenamed Operation Absolute Resolve) resulted in the capture of Nicolás Maduro via airstrikes and a limited apprehension force, without establishing a sustained occupation or broader ground campaign. Subsequent U.S. actions in the region have emphasized counternarcotics boat strikes, joint operations with select partners (such as Ecuador), tariffs, and diplomatic pressure rather than unilateral invasions of other nations. Regional pushback, international condemnation, and the high costs of further large-scale military commitments have reinforced this restraint through mid-2026. Threats toward Cuba, Mexico, and Colombia have not materialized into invasions, with policy instead prioritizing alliances, targeted enforcement, and economic tools. With roughly four months left in the year and no verified escalation signals in recent months, traders view the probability of another invasion as low.