The January 2026 U.S. military operation capturing Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro has shaped current trader consensus, with no comparable actions or troop deployments reported since. The administration has instead emphasized tariffs, sanctions enforcement, and bilateral security cooperation with partners across the region to address migration and narcotics flows. Recent statements from U.S. officials indicate heightened surveillance near Cuba but explicitly rule out imminent strikes, while diplomatic engagements and trade negotiations continue with Mexico and other nations. These developments, combined with the absence of new escalation triggers through mid-May, support the 76.5% implied probability that no additional invasion will occur before year-end.