Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions and persistent security risks continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with daily transits averaging well below pre-February 2026 levels of roughly 100–150 vessels. Recent data show single-digit crossings on multiple days in early May, including just nine ships on May 3 amid reported projectile attacks and a U.S. naval presence that has redirected dozens of vessels. Elevated war-risk insurance premiums and mine-clearance operations, expected to extend into September, reinforce trader caution around any rapid normalization. With May 31 resolution approaching, market-implied odds reflect the likelihood that sporadic approved transits via Iranian corridors may occur but sustained higher volumes remain constrained by unresolved geopolitical frictions and potential last-minute incidents.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$470,904 Vol.
31 mai 2026
20+
51%
40+
18%
60+
8%
80+
5%
$470,904 Vol.
20+
$108,595 Vol.
51%
40+
$116,598 Vol.
18%
60+
$64,925 Vol.
8%
80+
$180,785 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions and persistent security risks continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with daily transits averaging well below pre-February 2026 levels of roughly 100–150 vessels. Recent data show single-digit crossings on multiple days in early May, including just nine ships on May 3 amid reported projectile attacks and a U.S. naval presence that has redirected dozens of vessels. Elevated war-risk insurance premiums and mine-clearance operations, expected to extend into September, reinforce trader caution around any rapid normalization. With May 31 resolution approaching, market-implied odds reflect the likelihood that sporadic approved transits via Iranian corridors may occur but sustained higher volumes remain constrained by unresolved geopolitical frictions and potential last-minute incidents.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ET
Volume
$470,904Data de Término
31 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions and persistent security risks continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with daily transits averaging well below pre-February 2026 levels of roughly 100–150 vessels. Recent data show single-digit crossings on multiple days in early May, including just nine ships on May 3 amid reported projectile attacks and a U.S. naval presence that has redirected dozens of vessels. Elevated war-risk insurance premiums and mine-clearance operations, expected to extend into September, reinforce trader caution around any rapid normalization. With May 31 resolution approaching, market-implied odds reflect the likelihood that sporadic approved transits via Iranian corridors may occur but sustained higher volumes remain constrained by unresolved geopolitical frictions and potential last-minute incidents.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$470,904Data de Término
31 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions and persistent security risks continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with daily transits averaging well below pre-February 2026 levels of roughly 100–150 vessels. Recent data show single-digit crossings on multiple days in early May, including just nine ships on May 3 amid reported projectile attacks and a U.S. naval presence that has redirected dozens of vessels. Elevated war-risk insurance premiums and mine-clearance operations, expected to extend into September, reinforce trader caution around any rapid normalization. With May 31 resolution approaching, market-implied odds reflect the likelihood that sporadic approved transits via Iranian corridors may occur but sustained higher volumes remain constrained by unresolved geopolitical frictions and potential last-minute incidents.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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