Persistent geopolitical tensions from the US-Israel conflict with Iran continue to constrain commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, positioning the 20-39 ship range as the market-implied leader at 65.5%. Trader consensus reflects sustained low volumes, with daily crossings often in the single digits amid selective Iranian access, a US naval blockade, and lingering risks following the April ceasefire. Recent data through early May, including periods with only 9–21 vessels per day, underscore the limited recovery despite attempts at guided transits for neutral ships. This environment sustains elevated risk premiums that deter broader participation, while the 40-59 bin at 23.5% captures modest upside potential if selective permissions expand before the week's end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?
20-39 64%
40-59 25%
<20 7%
60-79 5.6%
$75,563 Vol.
$75,563 Vol.
17 mai 2026
<20
7%
20-39
64%
40-59
25%
60-79
6%
80+
1%
20-39 64%
40-59 25%
<20 7%
60-79 5.6%
$75,563 Vol.
$75,563 Vol.
17 mai 2026
<20
$25,617 Vol.
7%
20-39
$13,264 Vol.
64%
40-59
$13,263 Vol.
25%
60-79
$12,000 Vol.
6%
80+
$11,418 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions from the US-Israel conflict with Iran continue to constrain commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, positioning the 20-39 ship range as the market-implied leader at 65.5%. Trader consensus reflects sustained low volumes, with daily crossings often in the single digits amid selective Iranian access, a US naval blockade, and lingering risks following the April ceasefire. Recent data through early May, including periods with only 9–21 vessels per day, underscore the limited recovery despite attempts at guided transits for neutral ships. This environment sustains elevated risk premiums that deter broader participation, while the 40-59 bin at 23.5% captures modest upside potential if selective permissions expand before the week's end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado Aberto: May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ET
Volume
$75,563Data de Término
17 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions from the US-Israel conflict with Iran continue to constrain commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, positioning the 20-39 ship range as the market-implied leader at 65.5%. Trader consensus reflects sustained low volumes, with daily crossings often in the single digits amid selective Iranian access, a US naval blockade, and lingering risks following the April ceasefire. Recent data through early May, including periods with only 9–21 vessels per day, underscore the limited recovery despite attempts at guided transits for neutral ships. This environment sustains elevated risk premiums that deter broader participation, while the 40-59 bin at 23.5% captures modest upside potential if selective permissions expand before the week's end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$75,563Data de Término
17 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent geopolitical tensions from the US-Israel conflict with Iran continue to constrain commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, positioning the 20-39 ship range as the market-implied leader at 65.5%. Trader consensus reflects sustained low volumes, with daily crossings often in the single digits amid selective Iranian access, a US naval blockade, and lingering risks following the April ceasefire. Recent data through early May, including periods with only 9–21 vessels per day, underscore the limited recovery despite attempts at guided transits for neutral ships. This environment sustains elevated risk premiums that deter broader participation, while the 40-59 bin at 23.5% captures modest upside potential if selective permissions expand before the week's end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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