Trader consensus prices a 99% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by May 31, reflecting its demonstrated resilience after brutally suppressing nationwide protests in January 2026, which claimed thousands of lives and ended without institutional fractures. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and clerical leadership have maintained control amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, U.S. sanctions, Strait of Hormuz blockades, and economic collapse battering small businesses and fueling inflation. No verified reports of renewed mass uprisings, defections, or succession crises have emerged in the past 30 days, despite intermittent internet blackouts and opposition calls abroad. Realistic shifts would require a sudden catalyst like IRGC mutiny, Supreme Leader health event, or war escalation fracturing elite cohesion.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoO regime iraniano cairá até 31 de maio?
O regime iraniano cairá até 31 de maio?
Sim
$19,659,052 Vol.
$19,659,052 Vol.
31 mai 2026
Sim
$19,659,052 Vol.
$19,659,052 Vol.
31 mai 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices a 99% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by May 31, reflecting its demonstrated resilience after brutally suppressing nationwide protests in January 2026, which claimed thousands of lives and ended without institutional fractures. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and clerical leadership have maintained control amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, U.S. sanctions, Strait of Hormuz blockades, and economic collapse battering small businesses and fueling inflation. No verified reports of renewed mass uprisings, defections, or succession crises have emerged in the past 30 days, despite intermittent internet blackouts and opposition calls abroad. Realistic shifts would require a sudden catalyst like IRGC mutiny, Supreme Leader health event, or war escalation fracturing elite cohesion.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ET
Volume
$19,659,052Data de Término
31 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices a 99% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by May 31, reflecting its demonstrated resilience after brutally suppressing nationwide protests in January 2026, which claimed thousands of lives and ended without institutional fractures. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and clerical leadership have maintained control amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, U.S. sanctions, Strait of Hormuz blockades, and economic collapse battering small businesses and fueling inflation. No verified reports of renewed mass uprisings, defections, or succession crises have emerged in the past 30 days, despite intermittent internet blackouts and opposition calls abroad. Realistic shifts would require a sudden catalyst like IRGC mutiny, Supreme Leader health event, or war escalation fracturing elite cohesion.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$19,659,153Data de Término
31 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 99% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by May 31, reflecting its demonstrated resilience after brutally suppressing nationwide protests in January 2026, which claimed thousands of lives and ended without institutional fractures. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and clerical leadership have maintained control amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, U.S. sanctions, Strait of Hormuz blockades, and economic collapse battering small businesses and fueling inflation. No verified reports of renewed mass uprisings, defections, or succession crises have emerged in the past 30 days, despite intermittent internet blackouts and opposition calls abroad. Realistic shifts would require a sudden catalyst like IRGC mutiny, Supreme Leader health event, or war escalation fracturing elite cohesion.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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