The Trump administration's public preference for an internal Iranian successor, rather than an exiled opposition figure, combined with continued U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks through May 2026, has kept trader consensus heavily weighted against official recognition of Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader by December 31. President Trump has described Pahlavi as a "very nice person" while signaling that a domestic candidate would better suit post-Khamenei transition dynamics following the supreme leader's death earlier this year. Despite Pahlavi's recent calls at the Politico Security Summit and CPAC for decisive U.S. support of regime change amid ongoing military pressure from the United States and Israel, no State Department statements, diplomatic actions, or policy documents have indicated any shift toward formal endorsement. This absence of concrete developments sustains the 91.5% implied probability on "No," though a sudden collapse of the current regime or major diplomatic realignment could still alter outcomes before year-end.