Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 95.7% "No" due to Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) maintaining tight control over Iranian Kurdistan, exemplified by their April 25 dismantling of US- and Israel-backed separatist networks in Kurdistan and Kermanshah provinces amid the 2026 Kurdish-Iranian crisis. Earlier March coalitions like the Kurdistan Free Life Party and dissident alliances prepared potential incursions from Iraq but were deterred by Iranian airstrikes, drone attacks, and threats, preventing any formal independence declaration by groups such as PJAK or the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI). Structural barriers—including Tehran's unitary state, lack of international recognition, and suppressed unrest—bolster this positioning, though regime collapse, major external military intervention, or widespread uprising before June 29 could prompt a shift.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoCurdos declaram independência do Irã?
Curdos declaram independência do Irã?
Sim
$138,963 Vol.
$138,963 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sim
$138,963 Vol.
$138,963 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 95.7% "No" due to Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) maintaining tight control over Iranian Kurdistan, exemplified by their April 25 dismantling of US- and Israel-backed separatist networks in Kurdistan and Kermanshah provinces amid the 2026 Kurdish-Iranian crisis. Earlier March coalitions like the Kurdistan Free Life Party and dissident alliances prepared potential incursions from Iraq but were deterred by Iranian airstrikes, drone attacks, and threats, preventing any formal independence declaration by groups such as PJAK or the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI). Structural barriers—including Tehran's unitary state, lack of international recognition, and suppressed unrest—bolster this positioning, though regime collapse, major external military intervention, or widespread uprising before June 29 could prompt a shift.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 3, 2026, 6:16 PM ET
Volume
$138,963Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 3, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 95.7% "No" due to Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) maintaining tight control over Iranian Kurdistan, exemplified by their April 25 dismantling of US- and Israel-backed separatist networks in Kurdistan and Kermanshah provinces amid the 2026 Kurdish-Iranian crisis. Earlier March coalitions like the Kurdistan Free Life Party and dissident alliances prepared potential incursions from Iraq but were deterred by Iranian airstrikes, drone attacks, and threats, preventing any formal independence declaration by groups such as PJAK or the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI). Structural barriers—including Tehran's unitary state, lack of international recognition, and suppressed unrest—bolster this positioning, though regime collapse, major external military intervention, or widespread uprising before June 29 could prompt a shift.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$138,963Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 3, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 95.7% "No" due to Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) maintaining tight control over Iranian Kurdistan, exemplified by their April 25 dismantling of US- and Israel-backed separatist networks in Kurdistan and Kermanshah provinces amid the 2026 Kurdish-Iranian crisis. Earlier March coalitions like the Kurdistan Free Life Party and dissident alliances prepared potential incursions from Iraq but were deterred by Iranian airstrikes, drone attacks, and threats, preventing any formal independence declaration by groups such as PJAK or the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI). Structural barriers—including Tehran's unitary state, lack of international recognition, and suppressed unrest—bolster this positioning, though regime collapse, major external military intervention, or widespread uprising before June 29 could prompt a shift.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions