This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Direct US-Iran diplomatic negotiations stalled after the April 11 marathon talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, where delegations failed to agree on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, ending hostilities, or addressing Iran's nuclear advancements, despite reports of progress toward a one-page memorandum of understanding. President Trump rejected Tehran's latest proposals amid fragile ceasefire violations, including recent vessel attacks and a US seizure of an Iranian-flagged ship, while emphasizing up-front nuclear concessions. No date is set for the next in-person meeting, with backchannel efforts via Oman and Qatar ongoing and Pakistan advocating resumption in a neutral venue. The ongoing Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, through May 15, introduces potential Chinese mediation pressure on sanctions relief and de-escalation, though sticking points like ballistic missiles persist, leaving near-term outcomes uncertain for traders assessing diplomatic breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Direct US-Iran diplomatic negotiations stalled after the April 11 marathon talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, where delegations failed to agree on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, ending hostilities, or addressing Iran's nuclear advancements, despite reports of progress toward a one-page memorandum of understanding. President Trump rejected Tehran's latest proposals amid fragile ceasefire violations, including recent vessel attacks and a US seizure of an Iranian-flagged ship, while emphasizing up-front nuclear concessions. No date is set for the next in-person meeting, with backchannel efforts via Oman and Qatar ongoing and Pakistan advocating resumption in a neutral venue. The ongoing Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, through May 15, introduces potential Chinese mediation pressure on sanctions relief and de-escalation, though sticking points like ballistic missiles persist, leaving near-term outcomes uncertain for traders assessing diplomatic breakthroughs.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
May 12 2026
Iran’s army chief threatens pre‑emptive attack over U.S. rhetoric
May 31 drops to 24%6%
The threatening statement from Iran’s army chief increased the perception of a hostile environment, further depressing the May‑31 price from 30% to 24% and the June‑30 price from 63% to 59%.
May 12 2026
Pakistani delegation meets Iranian officials in Tehran to arrange US‑Iran talks
May 31 drops to 30%8%
The meeting suggested a possible diplomatic breakthrough, briefly stabilizing the market and raising the May‑31 price from 38% back to 30% before it fell again later in the week.
May 12 2026
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end war
May 15 dips to 1%2%
President Trump rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal, citing dissatisfaction and Iran’s fractured leadership, which diminished market expectations for a diplomatic meeting by May 15 and May 31.
May 10 2026
Trump says all options are on the table at UN Security Council
May 31 drops to 30%14%
Trump’s aggressive rhetoric at the UN signaled no imminent diplomatic breakthrough, coinciding with the May‑31 price dropping from 44% to 30% and the June‑30 price falling from 75% to 65%.
May 10 2026
President Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal
May 15 plunges to 55%16%
Trump’s public dismissal of Iran’s proposal signaled a stalled diplomatic process, causing the May‑15 price to tumble from 71% to 55% over the next two days.
May 8 2026
U.S. forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in Hormuz
May 31 drops to 44%5%
The direct military engagement heightened the risk of escalation, causing the May‑31 price to fall from 49% to 44% and the June‑30 price to slip from 72% to 65% that day.
May 8 2026
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers as tensions rise in Strait of Hormuz
May 31 plunges to 24%25%
US forces disabled two Iranian oil tankers after exchanges of fire in the Strait of Hormuz, further straining the ceasefire and reducing market confidence in imminent diplomatic meetings by May 15 and May 31.
May 8 2026
US forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in the Strait of Hormuz
June 30 drops to 60%13%
The US disabling of Iranian tankers escalated military tension, leading to a sharp price decline for the June‑30 outcome from 73% to 60% within two days.
May 2 2026
U.S. warns shipping firms of sanctions for paying Iran to transit Hormuz
June 30 drops to 61%7%
The Treasury’s warning that payments to Iran could trigger sanctions underscored the hostile environment, further eroding market confidence and pushing the June‑30 price from 68% to 61% on May 2.
Apr 30 2026
US Navy seizes Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
May 31 drops to 38%7%
The seizure was viewed as a provocative act that further reduced expectations of a diplomatic meeting, pushing the May‑31 price from 45% to 38% the following day.
Apr 30 2026
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships amid US blockade
May 15 drops to 23%14%
Iran reversed its reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and fired on ships attempting to pass, escalating tensions and undermining prospects for diplomatic meetings, leading to a sharp drop in market prices for May 15 and May 31 outcomes.
Apr 26 2026
Iranian foreign minister briefly returns to Pakistan, Trump urges phone talks
May 31 drops to 44%5%
Iran’s foreign minister’s brief visit to Islamabad ended with Trump refusing to send envoys, reinforcing the perception that in‑person talks were stalled, contributing to the May‑31 price dip from 49% to 44% that day.
Apr 26 2026
Iran’s top diplomat returns to Pakistan after talks canceled
May 31 dips to 27%4%
Iran’s foreign minister returned to Pakistan after the cancellation of talks, while Trump suggested the sides could talk by phone instead, reflecting ongoing diplomatic uncertainty and contributing to market declines for May 31 and May 15 outcomes.
Apr 26 2026
Iranian foreign minister returns to Pakistan; Trump prefers phone talks
May 15 drops to 71%8%
The brief return of Iran’s foreign minister to Islamabad raised hopes for a second round of talks, but Trump’s insistence on phone negotiations dampened optimism, causing the May‑15 price to drop from 79% to 71% the next day.
Apr 25 2026
Trump cancels US envoys' trip to Pakistan for Iran talks
May 31 drops to 31%9%
Iran’s top diplomat left Pakistan and President Trump said he told envoys not to travel to Islamabad, signaling a breakdown in planned talks and causing a sharp market decline in optimism for meetings by May 31 and May 15.
Apr 23 2026
Trump says US-Iran talks could resume soon but no schedule set
June 30 jumps to 71%8%
President Trump indicated that a second round of talks could happen within two days, but a US official later said no talks were scheduled, reflecting uncertainty and causing mixed market reactions with some volatility.
Apr 21 2026
U.S. rejects Iran’s latest cease‑fire proposal
May 15 drops to 71%8%
Trump publicly said he was not satisfied with Iran’s proposal delivered via Pakistani mediators, indicating no imminent meeting and coinciding with the May‑15 price falling from 79% to 71%.
Apr 21 2026
Pakistan delegation meets Iranian officials to ease tensions and arrange talks
June 30 jumps to 63%6%
Pakistan's army chief met Iran's foreign minister in Tehran to facilitate a second round of US-Iran negotiations before the ceasefire expires, raising hopes for diplomacy and causing a temporary market rebound for June 30 and May 31 outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Direct US-Iran diplomatic negotiations stalled after the April 11 marathon talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, where delegations failed to agree on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, ending hostilities, or addressing Iran's nuclear advancements, despite reports of progress toward a one-page memorandum of understanding. President Trump rejected Tehran's latest proposals amid fragile ceasefire violations, including recent vessel attacks and a US seizure of an Iranian-flagged ship, while emphasizing up-front nuclear concessions. No date is set for the next in-person meeting, with backchannel efforts via Oman and Qatar ongoing and Pakistan advocating resumption in a neutral venue. The ongoing Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, through May 15, introduces potential Chinese mediation pressure on sanctions relief and de-escalation, though sticking points like ballistic missiles persist, leaving near-term outcomes uncertain for traders assessing diplomatic breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Direct US-Iran diplomatic negotiations stalled after the April 11 marathon talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, where delegations failed to agree on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, ending hostilities, or addressing Iran's nuclear advancements, despite reports of progress toward a one-page memorandum of understanding. President Trump rejected Tehran's latest proposals amid fragile ceasefire violations, including recent vessel attacks and a US seizure of an Iranian-flagged ship, while emphasizing up-front nuclear concessions. No date is set for the next in-person meeting, with backchannel efforts via Oman and Qatar ongoing and Pakistan advocating resumption in a neutral venue. The ongoing Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, through May 15, introduces potential Chinese mediation pressure on sanctions relief and de-escalation, though sticking points like ballistic missiles persist, leaving near-term outcomes uncertain for traders assessing diplomatic breakthroughs.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
May 12 2026
Iran’s army chief threatens pre‑emptive attack over U.S. rhetoric
May 31 drops to 24%6%
The threatening statement from Iran’s army chief increased the perception of a hostile environment, further depressing the May‑31 price from 30% to 24% and the June‑30 price from 63% to 59%.
May 12 2026
Pakistani delegation meets Iranian officials in Tehran to arrange US‑Iran talks
May 31 drops to 30%8%
The meeting suggested a possible diplomatic breakthrough, briefly stabilizing the market and raising the May‑31 price from 38% back to 30% before it fell again later in the week.
May 12 2026
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end war
May 15 dips to 1%2%
President Trump rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal, citing dissatisfaction and Iran’s fractured leadership, which diminished market expectations for a diplomatic meeting by May 15 and May 31.
May 10 2026
Trump says all options are on the table at UN Security Council
May 31 drops to 30%14%
Trump’s aggressive rhetoric at the UN signaled no imminent diplomatic breakthrough, coinciding with the May‑31 price dropping from 44% to 30% and the June‑30 price falling from 75% to 65%.
May 10 2026
President Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal
May 15 plunges to 55%16%
Trump’s public dismissal of Iran’s proposal signaled a stalled diplomatic process, causing the May‑15 price to tumble from 71% to 55% over the next two days.
May 8 2026
U.S. forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in Hormuz
May 31 drops to 44%5%
The direct military engagement heightened the risk of escalation, causing the May‑31 price to fall from 49% to 44% and the June‑30 price to slip from 72% to 65% that day.
May 8 2026
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers as tensions rise in Strait of Hormuz
May 31 plunges to 24%25%
US forces disabled two Iranian oil tankers after exchanges of fire in the Strait of Hormuz, further straining the ceasefire and reducing market confidence in imminent diplomatic meetings by May 15 and May 31.
May 8 2026
US forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in the Strait of Hormuz
June 30 drops to 60%13%
The US disabling of Iranian tankers escalated military tension, leading to a sharp price decline for the June‑30 outcome from 73% to 60% within two days.
May 2 2026
U.S. warns shipping firms of sanctions for paying Iran to transit Hormuz
June 30 drops to 61%7%
The Treasury’s warning that payments to Iran could trigger sanctions underscored the hostile environment, further eroding market confidence and pushing the June‑30 price from 68% to 61% on May 2.
Apr 30 2026
US Navy seizes Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
May 31 drops to 38%7%
The seizure was viewed as a provocative act that further reduced expectations of a diplomatic meeting, pushing the May‑31 price from 45% to 38% the following day.
Apr 30 2026
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships amid US blockade
May 15 drops to 23%14%
Iran reversed its reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and fired on ships attempting to pass, escalating tensions and undermining prospects for diplomatic meetings, leading to a sharp drop in market prices for May 15 and May 31 outcomes.
Apr 26 2026
Iranian foreign minister briefly returns to Pakistan, Trump urges phone talks
May 31 drops to 44%5%
Iran’s foreign minister’s brief visit to Islamabad ended with Trump refusing to send envoys, reinforcing the perception that in‑person talks were stalled, contributing to the May‑31 price dip from 49% to 44% that day.
Apr 26 2026
Iran’s top diplomat returns to Pakistan after talks canceled
May 31 dips to 27%4%
Iran’s foreign minister returned to Pakistan after the cancellation of talks, while Trump suggested the sides could talk by phone instead, reflecting ongoing diplomatic uncertainty and contributing to market declines for May 31 and May 15 outcomes.
Apr 26 2026
Iranian foreign minister returns to Pakistan; Trump prefers phone talks
May 15 drops to 71%8%
The brief return of Iran’s foreign minister to Islamabad raised hopes for a second round of talks, but Trump’s insistence on phone negotiations dampened optimism, causing the May‑15 price to drop from 79% to 71% the next day.
Apr 25 2026
Trump cancels US envoys' trip to Pakistan for Iran talks
May 31 drops to 31%9%
Iran’s top diplomat left Pakistan and President Trump said he told envoys not to travel to Islamabad, signaling a breakdown in planned talks and causing a sharp market decline in optimism for meetings by May 31 and May 15.
Apr 23 2026
Trump says US-Iran talks could resume soon but no schedule set
June 30 jumps to 71%8%
President Trump indicated that a second round of talks could happen within two days, but a US official later said no talks were scheduled, reflecting uncertainty and causing mixed market reactions with some volatility.
Apr 21 2026
U.S. rejects Iran’s latest cease‑fire proposal
May 15 drops to 71%8%
Trump publicly said he was not satisfied with Iran’s proposal delivered via Pakistani mediators, indicating no imminent meeting and coinciding with the May‑15 price falling from 79% to 71%.
Apr 21 2026
Pakistan delegation meets Iranian officials to ease tensions and arrange talks
June 30 jumps to 63%6%
Pakistan's army chief met Iran's foreign minister in Tehran to facilitate a second round of US-Iran negotiations before the ceasefire expires, raising hopes for diplomacy and causing a temporary market rebound for June 30 and May 31 outcomes.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions
"Reunião diplomática EUA x Irão por...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 20 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "30 de junho" at 59%, followed by "31 de maio" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 59¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 59% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "Reunião diplomática EUA x Irão por...?" has generated $36 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 12, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "Reunião diplomática EUA x Irão por...?," browse the 20 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The current frontrunner for "Reunião diplomática EUA x Irão por...?" is "30 de junho" at 59%, meaning the market assigns a 59% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "31 de maio" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.
The resolution rules for "Reunião diplomática EUA x Irão por...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Reunião diplomática EUA x Irão por...?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.
Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $36 million traded on “Reunião diplomática EUA x Irão por...?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.
To place your first trade on "Reunião diplomática EUA x Irão por...?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.
On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 59¢ for "30 de junho" in the "Reunião diplomática EUA x Irão por...?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 59% chance that "30 de junho" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 59¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 41¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.
The "Reunião diplomática EUA x Irão por...?" market's scheduled end date has passed, but the market has not yet been officially resolved. The end date indicates when the underlying event is expected to occur or become knowable. It is not the moment trading stops. The market remains open for trading until the outcome is formally resolved through the resolution process. You can still buy, sell, or close your position while the market is pending resolution. Check the resolution status tracker and "Rules" section on this page for updates on the resolution timeline.
The "Reunião diplomática EUA x Irão por...?" market has an active community of 4,433 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Reunião diplomática EUA x Irão por...?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions