Tensions between Israel and Iran remain elevated following the February 2026 outbreak of direct conflict and the subsequent April ceasefire brokered through Pakistani mediation. Negotiations center on Iran's nuclear enrichment program, ballistic missile capabilities, and support for regional proxies, with Israel demanding the removal of all enriched uranium, dismantlement of underground sites, and strict limits on missile production as preconditions for any lasting agreement. Recent U.S. proposals, including a 14-point framework, have faced rejection from Tehran amid disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and enforcement mechanisms, leaving the truce fragile and subject to violations. Traders assess low near-term prospects for a permanent deal given these core divergences and the absence of unified Iranian proposals, though extensions of the ceasefire and continued diplomatic engagement through intermediaries could shift dynamics if verifiable concessions emerge by late spring.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
$888,693 Vol.
31 mai 2026
May 31
3%
30 de junho
16%
$888,693 Vol.
May 31
$255,779 Vol.
3%
30 de junho
$318,299 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tensions between Israel and Iran remain elevated following the February 2026 outbreak of direct conflict and the subsequent April ceasefire brokered through Pakistani mediation. Negotiations center on Iran's nuclear enrichment program, ballistic missile capabilities, and support for regional proxies, with Israel demanding the removal of all enriched uranium, dismantlement of underground sites, and strict limits on missile production as preconditions for any lasting agreement. Recent U.S. proposals, including a 14-point framework, have faced rejection from Tehran amid disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and enforcement mechanisms, leaving the truce fragile and subject to violations. Traders assess low near-term prospects for a permanent deal given these core divergences and the absence of unified Iranian proposals, though extensions of the ceasefire and continued diplomatic engagement through intermediaries could shift dynamics if verifiable concessions emerge by late spring.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ET
Volume
$888,693Data de Término
31 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tensions between Israel and Iran remain elevated following the February 2026 outbreak of direct conflict and the subsequent April ceasefire brokered through Pakistani mediation. Negotiations center on Iran's nuclear enrichment program, ballistic missile capabilities, and support for regional proxies, with Israel demanding the removal of all enriched uranium, dismantlement of underground sites, and strict limits on missile production as preconditions for any lasting agreement. Recent U.S. proposals, including a 14-point framework, have faced rejection from Tehran amid disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and enforcement mechanisms, leaving the truce fragile and subject to violations. Traders assess low near-term prospects for a permanent deal given these core divergences and the absence of unified Iranian proposals, though extensions of the ceasefire and continued diplomatic engagement through intermediaries could shift dynamics if verifiable concessions emerge by late spring.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$888,693Data de Término
31 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tensions between Israel and Iran remain elevated following the February 2026 outbreak of direct conflict and the subsequent April ceasefire brokered through Pakistani mediation. Negotiations center on Iran's nuclear enrichment program, ballistic missile capabilities, and support for regional proxies, with Israel demanding the removal of all enriched uranium, dismantlement of underground sites, and strict limits on missile production as preconditions for any lasting agreement. Recent U.S. proposals, including a 14-point framework, have faced rejection from Tehran amid disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and enforcement mechanisms, leaving the truce fragile and subject to violations. Traders assess low near-term prospects for a permanent deal given these core divergences and the absence of unified Iranian proposals, though extensions of the ceasefire and continued diplomatic engagement through intermediaries could shift dynamics if verifiable concessions emerge by late spring.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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