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Geopolítica·Embaixador

Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?

icon for Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?
Geopolítica·Embaixador

Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?

28% chance
Polymarket
NOVO
28% chance
Polymarket
NOVO
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus favors no additional expulsion of an Iranian diplomat by June 30 at 72.5%, reflecting the absence of fresh diplomatic provocations or attributed plots in the past month. Recent disclosures on April 3 revealed U.S. State Department actions expelling Iran's deputy UN ambassador in December 2025 and several others over the prior six months for national security concerns, alongside Lebanon's March expulsion of Tehran's envoy amid Hezbollah tensions. With no new verifiable incidents, espionage allegations, or escalatory signals from Iran since early April, markets anticipate diplomatic stasis persists through mid-year, barring unforeseen developments like foiled attacks or heightened regional conflicts.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.

An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,591
Data de Término
30 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus favors no additional expulsion of an Iranian diplomat by June 30 at 72.5%, reflecting the absence of fresh diplomatic provocations or attributed plots in the past month. Recent disclosures on April 3 revealed U.S. State Department actions expelling Iran's deputy UN ambassador in December 2025 and several others over the prior six months for national security concerns, alongside Lebanon's March expulsion of Tehran's envoy amid Hezbollah tensions. With no new verifiable incidents, espionage allegations, or escalatory signals from Iran since early April, markets anticipate diplomatic stasis persists through mid-year, barring unforeseen developments like foiled attacks or heightened regional conflicts.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.

An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,591
Data de Término
30 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 28% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 28¢, the market collectively assigns a 28% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 30, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?" is 28% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 28% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.