Recent AtlasIntel and Datafolha surveys show President Lula da Silva holding a narrow first-round lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of roughly 2–4 points, with Lula at 39–44% and Flávio at 33–42%. This tightening reflects Flávio’s recent gains amid a Supreme Court controversy that has energized segments of the right-wing electorate while raising questions about institutional impartiality. Minor candidates such as Renan Santos and Augusto Cury continue to draw low-single-digit support that fragments the remainder of the field. With the October 4 first round approaching and most national polls indicating a difference well inside typical margins of error, trader pricing assigns the highest probability to a Lula victory margin below 5%.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoEleições presidenciais no Brasil: Margem de Vitória
Eleições presidenciais no Brasil: Margem de Vitória
Lula da Silva <5% 49%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 23.8%
Lula da Silva 5–10% 18%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% 6.4%
$485,059 Vol.
$485,059 Vol.
3 out 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
1%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
5%
Lula da Silva 5–10%
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
49%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
6%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
24%
Vitória de Renan Santos
<1%
Vitória de Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Vitória de Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Outro
<1%
Lula da Silva <5% 49%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 23.8%
Lula da Silva 5–10% 18%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% 6.4%
$485,059 Vol.
$485,059 Vol.
3 out 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$20,038 Vol.
1%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
$46,059 Vol.
5%
Lula da Silva 5–10%
$42,323 Vol.
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
$43,906 Vol.
49%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
$27,431 Vol.
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$25,030 Vol.
6%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$33,144 Vol.
24%
Vitória de Renan Santos
$218,074 Vol.
<1%
Vitória de Tarcisio de Freitas
$9,720 Vol.
<1%
Vitória de Ratinho Júnior
$9,114 Vol.
<1%
Outro
$10,219 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent AtlasIntel and Datafolha surveys show President Lula da Silva holding a narrow first-round lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of roughly 2–4 points, with Lula at 39–44% and Flávio at 33–42%. This tightening reflects Flávio’s recent gains amid a Supreme Court controversy that has energized segments of the right-wing electorate while raising questions about institutional impartiality. Minor candidates such as Renan Santos and Augusto Cury continue to draw low-single-digit support that fragments the remainder of the field. With the October 4 first round approaching and most national polls indicating a difference well inside typical margins of error, trader pricing assigns the highest probability to a Lula victory margin below 5%.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado Aberto: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Volume
$485,059Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent AtlasIntel and Datafolha surveys show President Lula da Silva holding a narrow first-round lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of roughly 2–4 points, with Lula at 39–44% and Flávio at 33–42%. This tightening reflects Flávio’s recent gains amid a Supreme Court controversy that has energized segments of the right-wing electorate while raising questions about institutional impartiality. Minor candidates such as Renan Santos and Augusto Cury continue to draw low-single-digit support that fragments the remainder of the field. With the October 4 first round approaching and most national polls indicating a difference well inside typical margins of error, trader pricing assigns the highest probability to a Lula victory margin below 5%.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$485,059Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent AtlasIntel and Datafolha surveys show President Lula da Silva holding a narrow first-round lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of roughly 2–4 points, with Lula at 39–44% and Flávio at 33–42%. This tightening reflects Flávio’s recent gains amid a Supreme Court controversy that has energized segments of the right-wing electorate while raising questions about institutional impartiality. Minor candidates such as Renan Santos and Augusto Cury continue to draw low-single-digit support that fragments the remainder of the field. With the October 4 first round approaching and most national polls indicating a difference well inside typical margins of error, trader pricing assigns the highest probability to a Lula victory margin below 5%.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRelacionado
Flávio Bolsonaro receberá 39% ou mais dos votos válidos no primeiro turno da eleição presidencial brasileira de 2026?
83%
Sim
Lula vencerá com 44% ou mais dos votos válidos no primeiro turno da eleição presidencial brasileira de 2026?
40%
Sim
Renan Santos vai obter entre 4% e 6% dos votos válidos no primeiro turno da eleição presidencial brasileira de 2026?
34%
Sim
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Frequently Asked Questions