Recent polling shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Liberal Party challenger Flávio Bolsonaro locked in a statistical tie for the October 4 first round, with Lula at 38–40 percent and Bolsonaro at 33–37 percent across major surveys. This narrow gap, combined with Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement of his son and the exclusion of most other right-wing contenders from the top tier, concentrates trader focus on sub-5 percent or 5–10 percent victory margins for either front-runner. Economic pressures including household debt and inflation, alongside a recent scandal linking Flávio to the Banco Master case, have limited consolidation behind any single candidate and kept third options such as Renan Santos or state governors below 5 percent. The October timeline and runoff mechanics further reinforce expectations of a close initial outcome.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoEleições presidenciais no Brasil: Margem de Vitória
Eleições presidenciais no Brasil: Margem de Vitória
Lula da Silva <5% 31%
Lula da Silva 5–10% 18%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 16%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 7.8%
$231,585 Vol.
$231,585 Vol.
4 out 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
4%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
8%
Lula da Silva 5–10%
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
43%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
6%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
16%
Vitória de Renan Santos
5%
Vitória de Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Vitória de Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Outro
21%
Lula da Silva <5% 31%
Lula da Silva 5–10% 18%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 16%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 7.8%
$231,585 Vol.
$231,585 Vol.
4 out 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$4,601 Vol.
4%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
$2,627 Vol.
8%
Lula da Silva 5–10%
$6,808 Vol.
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
$2,923 Vol.
43%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
$1,984 Vol.
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$2,309 Vol.
6%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$4,026 Vol.
16%
Vitória de Renan Santos
$200,567 Vol.
5%
Vitória de Tarcisio de Freitas
$1,707 Vol.
<1%
Vitória de Ratinho Júnior
$1,774 Vol.
<1%
Outro
$2,258 Vol.
21%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Liberal Party challenger Flávio Bolsonaro locked in a statistical tie for the October 4 first round, with Lula at 38–40 percent and Bolsonaro at 33–37 percent across major surveys. This narrow gap, combined with Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement of his son and the exclusion of most other right-wing contenders from the top tier, concentrates trader focus on sub-5 percent or 5–10 percent victory margins for either front-runner. Economic pressures including household debt and inflation, alongside a recent scandal linking Flávio to the Banco Master case, have limited consolidation behind any single candidate and kept third options such as Renan Santos or state governors below 5 percent. The October timeline and runoff mechanics further reinforce expectations of a close initial outcome.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado Aberto: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Volume
$231,585Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Liberal Party challenger Flávio Bolsonaro locked in a statistical tie for the October 4 first round, with Lula at 38–40 percent and Bolsonaro at 33–37 percent across major surveys. This narrow gap, combined with Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement of his son and the exclusion of most other right-wing contenders from the top tier, concentrates trader focus on sub-5 percent or 5–10 percent victory margins for either front-runner. Economic pressures including household debt and inflation, alongside a recent scandal linking Flávio to the Banco Master case, have limited consolidation behind any single candidate and kept third options such as Renan Santos or state governors below 5 percent. The October timeline and runoff mechanics further reinforce expectations of a close initial outcome.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$231,585Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Liberal Party challenger Flávio Bolsonaro locked in a statistical tie for the October 4 first round, with Lula at 38–40 percent and Bolsonaro at 33–37 percent across major surveys. This narrow gap, combined with Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement of his son and the exclusion of most other right-wing contenders from the top tier, concentrates trader focus on sub-5 percent or 5–10 percent victory margins for either front-runner. Economic pressures including household debt and inflation, alongside a recent scandal linking Flávio to the Banco Master case, have limited consolidation behind any single candidate and kept third options such as Renan Santos or state governors below 5 percent. The October timeline and runoff mechanics further reinforce expectations of a close initial outcome.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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