Recent polling surges placing One Nation near 25% nationally, combined with Barnaby Joyce’s December 2025 defection from the Nationals and the party’s May 2026 Farrer by-election win, have strengthened its parliamentary profile and crossbench influence. State-level gains, including Luke Herdegen’s September 2026 swearing-in as Western Australia’s first One Nation lower-house member, further illustrate expanding reach. Reports of WA Upper House MP Ben Dawkins exploring a switch, alongside limited but ongoing discussions with a small number of Coalition figures, contribute to trader assessment of a moderate probability that at least one additional sitting member will join before year-end. Hanson’s public preference for new candidates over established defectors and internal party discipline considerations introduce counterbalancing uncertainty.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
45% chance
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
Sim
45% chance
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling surges placing One Nation near 25% nationally, combined with Barnaby Joyce’s December 2025 defection from the Nationals and the party’s May 2026 Farrer by-election win, have strengthened its parliamentary profile and crossbench influence. State-level gains, including Luke Herdegen’s September 2026 swearing-in as Western Australia’s first One Nation lower-house member, further illustrate expanding reach. Reports of WA Upper House MP Ben Dawkins exploring a switch, alongside limited but ongoing discussions with a small number of Coalition figures, contribute to trader assessment of a moderate probability that at least one additional sitting member will join before year-end. Hanson’s public preference for new candidates over established defectors and internal party discipline considerations introduce counterbalancing uncertainty.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 23, 2026, 9:38 PM ET
Volume
$192Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jun 23, 2026, 9:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling surges placing One Nation near 25% nationally, combined with Barnaby Joyce’s December 2025 defection from the Nationals and the party’s May 2026 Farrer by-election win, have strengthened its parliamentary profile and crossbench influence. State-level gains, including Luke Herdegen’s September 2026 swearing-in as Western Australia’s first One Nation lower-house member, further illustrate expanding reach. Reports of WA Upper House MP Ben Dawkins exploring a switch, alongside limited but ongoing discussions with a small number of Coalition figures, contribute to trader assessment of a moderate probability that at least one additional sitting member will join before year-end. Hanson’s public preference for new candidates over established defectors and internal party discipline considerations introduce counterbalancing uncertainty.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$192Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jun 23, 2026, 9:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling surges placing One Nation near 25% nationally, combined with Barnaby Joyce’s December 2025 defection from the Nationals and the party’s May 2026 Farrer by-election win, have strengthened its parliamentary profile and crossbench influence. State-level gains, including Luke Herdegen’s September 2026 swearing-in as Western Australia’s first One Nation lower-house member, further illustrate expanding reach. Reports of WA Upper House MP Ben Dawkins exploring a switch, alongside limited but ongoing discussions with a small number of Coalition figures, contribute to trader assessment of a moderate probability that at least one additional sitting member will join before year-end. Hanson’s public preference for new candidates over established defectors and internal party discipline considerations introduce counterbalancing uncertainty.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions