Recent polling for Victoria's November 2026 state election shows a fragmented primary vote, with the Liberal-National Coalition, Labor, and One Nation each polling in the mid-20s percent range and no party commanding a clear majority. The Coalition has edged ahead on two-party preferred measures in several surveys, while Labor's position weakened amid its July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll. One Nation's sustained support adds further uncertainty by splitting the vote and complicating seat projections under preferential voting. Traders appear to price these dynamics through modest implied probabilities for the Coalition, reflecting the closely contested nature and potential for late swings from minor parties or preference flows. Key upcoming catalysts include additional polling releases and campaign announcements before election day.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoLiberal–National 64%
Labor 23%
One Nation 11%
Greens 2.2%
NOVO
NOVO
28 nov 2026
Liberal–National
64%
Labor
23%
One Nation
11%
Greens
2%
Liberal–National 64%
Labor 23%
One Nation 11%
Greens 2.2%
NOVO
NOVO
28 nov 2026
Liberal–National
$2,448 Vol.
64%
Labor
$341 Vol.
23%
One Nation
$72 Vol.
11%
Greens
$119 Vol.
2%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling for Victoria's November 2026 state election shows a fragmented primary vote, with the Liberal-National Coalition, Labor, and One Nation each polling in the mid-20s percent range and no party commanding a clear majority. The Coalition has edged ahead on two-party preferred measures in several surveys, while Labor's position weakened amid its July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll. One Nation's sustained support adds further uncertainty by splitting the vote and complicating seat projections under preferential voting. Traders appear to price these dynamics through modest implied probabilities for the Coalition, reflecting the closely contested nature and potential for late swings from minor parties or preference flows. Key upcoming catalysts include additional polling releases and campaign announcements before election day.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Mercado Aberto: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
Volume
$2,979Data de Término
28 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling for Victoria's November 2026 state election shows a fragmented primary vote, with the Liberal-National Coalition, Labor, and One Nation each polling in the mid-20s percent range and no party commanding a clear majority. The Coalition has edged ahead on two-party preferred measures in several surveys, while Labor's position weakened amid its July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll. One Nation's sustained support adds further uncertainty by splitting the vote and complicating seat projections under preferential voting. Traders appear to price these dynamics through modest implied probabilities for the Coalition, reflecting the closely contested nature and potential for late swings from minor parties or preference flows. Key upcoming catalysts include additional polling releases and campaign announcements before election day.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Volume
$2,979Data de Término
28 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for Victoria's November 2026 state election shows a fragmented primary vote, with the Liberal-National Coalition, Labor, and One Nation each polling in the mid-20s percent range and no party commanding a clear majority. The Coalition has edged ahead on two-party preferred measures in several surveys, while Labor's position weakened amid its July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll. One Nation's sustained support adds further uncertainty by splitting the vote and complicating seat projections under preferential voting. Traders appear to price these dynamics through modest implied probabilities for the Coalition, reflecting the closely contested nature and potential for late swings from minor parties or preference flows. Key upcoming catalysts include additional polling releases and campaign announcements before election day.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions