Recent polling for the November 2026 Victorian state election shows One Nation’s primary vote surging to the low-to-mid 20s, often placing it ahead of or level with Labor while trailing the Liberal–National Coalition. This positioning, driven by voter shifts from Labor amid leadership transitions and dissatisfaction with government performance, underpins trader consensus favoring One Nation for third place on primary votes. Labor’s primary support has fallen to around 25 percent in August surveys, reducing its likelihood of finishing third, while the Coalition leads outright and the Greens remain lower. Upper House projections and preference flow analysis further highlight One Nation’s competitive standing across regions, with the election three months away leaving room for late movements in minor-party or “other” support.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoEleição Parlamentar de Victoria: 3º Lugar
Eleição Parlamentar de Victoria: 3º Lugar
One Nation 80%
Labor 17%
Animal Justice 4.1%
Liberal–National 3.8%
NOVO
NOVO
28 nov 2026
One Nation
80%
Labor
17%
Animal Justice
4%
Liberal–National
4%
Greens
4%
Legalise Cannabis
4%
Libertarian
4%
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
4%
One Nation 80%
Labor 17%
Animal Justice 4.1%
Liberal–National 3.8%
NOVO
NOVO
28 nov 2026
One Nation
$0 Vol.
80%
Labor
$4 Vol.
17%
Animal Justice
$0 Vol.
4%
Liberal–National
$0 Vol.
4%
Greens
$0 Vol.
4%
Legalise Cannabis
$0 Vol.
4%
Libertarian
$0 Vol.
4%
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
$0 Vol.
4%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling for the November 2026 Victorian state election shows One Nation’s primary vote surging to the low-to-mid 20s, often placing it ahead of or level with Labor while trailing the Liberal–National Coalition. This positioning, driven by voter shifts from Labor amid leadership transitions and dissatisfaction with government performance, underpins trader consensus favoring One Nation for third place on primary votes. Labor’s primary support has fallen to around 25 percent in August surveys, reducing its likelihood of finishing third, while the Coalition leads outright and the Greens remain lower. Upper House projections and preference flow analysis further highlight One Nation’s competitive standing across regions, with the election three months away leaving room for late movements in minor-party or “other” support.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Mercado Aberto: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
Volume
$4Data de Término
28 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling for the November 2026 Victorian state election shows One Nation’s primary vote surging to the low-to-mid 20s, often placing it ahead of or level with Labor while trailing the Liberal–National Coalition. This positioning, driven by voter shifts from Labor amid leadership transitions and dissatisfaction with government performance, underpins trader consensus favoring One Nation for third place on primary votes. Labor’s primary support has fallen to around 25 percent in August surveys, reducing its likelihood of finishing third, while the Coalition leads outright and the Greens remain lower. Upper House projections and preference flow analysis further highlight One Nation’s competitive standing across regions, with the election three months away leaving room for late movements in minor-party or “other” support.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Volume
$4Data de Término
28 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for the November 2026 Victorian state election shows One Nation’s primary vote surging to the low-to-mid 20s, often placing it ahead of or level with Labor while trailing the Liberal–National Coalition. This positioning, driven by voter shifts from Labor amid leadership transitions and dissatisfaction with government performance, underpins trader consensus favoring One Nation for third place on primary votes. Labor’s primary support has fallen to around 25 percent in August surveys, reducing its likelihood of finishing third, while the Coalition leads outright and the Greens remain lower. Upper House projections and preference flow analysis further highlight One Nation’s competitive standing across regions, with the election three months away leaving room for late movements in minor-party or “other” support.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRelacionado
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