Recent polling averages for New Zealand's November 2026 general election place Labour and National nearly tied near 30 percent, leaving Greens, NZ First, and ACT clustered in the 8–12 percent range where third place will be decided. Aggregates from Kiwi Polls and individual surveys such as 1News-Verian and Talbot Mills show Greens holding a modest edge over NZ First in several releases, while ACT trails slightly and Opportunity hovers near the 5 percent threshold. Traders have priced the Greens highest for third place because their consistent mid-teens support in recent months gives them the clearest path past the two major parties, with NZ First retaining substantial but secondary probability due to comparable but more variable results. Minor shifts in minor-party vote shares or turnout among swing blocs could still alter the final ordering before election day.