Jorginho Mello, the incumbent Liberal Party governor seeking reelection, holds a commanding lead in trader pricing for the October 4, 2026, first-round vote in Santa Catarina due to consistent polling dominance. Recent surveys, including Quaest data from late August, place him near or above 50% of first-round intentions, well ahead of João Rodrigues (PSD) and other registered candidates such as Gelson Merísio (PSB) and Marcelo Brigadeiro (Missão). Mello’s position draws from the state’s conservative electorate, his 2022 landslide victory, and alliances including with the Bolsonaro family, which have consolidated support ahead of the official campaign start. Party conventions finalized candidate slates in early August, and the state assembly approved his temporary leave for campaigning later that month. While the wide margin makes an upset improbable, scenarios such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp late swing in turnout could still affect the outcome before the potential runoff on October 25.