Celina Leão (PP), the incumbent governor since March 2026 following Ibaneis Rocha’s resignation, holds the lead in recent polling averages for the October 2026 Distrito Federal election, benefiting from name recognition, institutional visibility, and coalition backing from PP and União Brasil. A crowded field of nine or more registered candidates—including Leandro Grass (PT), Ricardo Cappelli (PSB), José Roberto Arruda, Kiko Caputo (Novo), Paula Belmonte (PSDB), and others—fragments opposition support and raises the possibility of a second-round runoff. The August 9 televised debate highlighted attacks on Leão’s handling of Banco de Brasília finances, while left-leaning challengers coordinated criticism with federal government ties. Trader pricing reflects her frontrunner status yet accounts for volatility from ongoing campaign events, coalition negotiations, and first-round vote thresholds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição para governador do Distrito Federal
Vencedor da eleição para governador do Distrito Federal
Celina Leão 43%
Cappelli 23%
Leandro Grass 22%
Professora Samara Mineiro 22%
NOVO
NOVO
4 out 2026
Celina Leão
55%
Cappelli
23%
Leandro Grass
22%
Professora Samara Mineiro
22%
Kiko Caputo
21%
Elisson
20%
Professor Robson
20%
Arruda
20%
Paula Belmonte
21%
Expedito Mendonça
7%
Celina Leão 43%
Cappelli 23%
Leandro Grass 22%
Professora Samara Mineiro 22%
NOVO
NOVO
4 out 2026
Celina Leão
$122 Vol.
55%
Cappelli
$40 Vol.
23%
Leandro Grass
$40 Vol.
22%
Professora Samara Mineiro
$40 Vol.
22%
Kiko Caputo
$40 Vol.
21%
Elisson
$40 Vol.
20%
Professor Robson
$40 Vol.
20%
Arruda
$40 Vol.
20%
Paula Belmonte
$40 Vol.
21%
Expedito Mendonça
$79 Vol.
7%
The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Celina Leão (PP), the incumbent governor since March 2026 following Ibaneis Rocha’s resignation, holds the lead in recent polling averages for the October 2026 Distrito Federal election, benefiting from name recognition, institutional visibility, and coalition backing from PP and União Brasil. A crowded field of nine or more registered candidates—including Leandro Grass (PT), Ricardo Cappelli (PSB), José Roberto Arruda, Kiko Caputo (Novo), Paula Belmonte (PSDB), and others—fragments opposition support and raises the possibility of a second-round runoff. The August 9 televised debate highlighted attacks on Leão’s handling of Banco de Brasília finances, while left-leaning challengers coordinated criticism with federal government ties. Trader pricing reflects her frontrunner status yet accounts for volatility from ongoing campaign events, coalition negotiations, and first-round vote thresholds.
The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado Aberto: Aug 17, 2026, 5:44 AM ET
Volume
$521Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:44 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Celina Leão (PP), the incumbent governor since March 2026 following Ibaneis Rocha’s resignation, holds the lead in recent polling averages for the October 2026 Distrito Federal election, benefiting from name recognition, institutional visibility, and coalition backing from PP and União Brasil. A crowded field of nine or more registered candidates—including Leandro Grass (PT), Ricardo Cappelli (PSB), José Roberto Arruda, Kiko Caputo (Novo), Paula Belmonte (PSDB), and others—fragments opposition support and raises the possibility of a second-round runoff. The August 9 televised debate highlighted attacks on Leão’s handling of Banco de Brasília finances, while left-leaning challengers coordinated criticism with federal government ties. Trader pricing reflects her frontrunner status yet accounts for volatility from ongoing campaign events, coalition negotiations, and first-round vote thresholds.
The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$521Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:44 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Celina Leão (PP), the incumbent governor since March 2026 following Ibaneis Rocha’s resignation, holds the lead in recent polling averages for the October 2026 Distrito Federal election, benefiting from name recognition, institutional visibility, and coalition backing from PP and União Brasil. A crowded field of nine or more registered candidates—including Leandro Grass (PT), Ricardo Cappelli (PSB), José Roberto Arruda, Kiko Caputo (Novo), Paula Belmonte (PSDB), and others—fragments opposition support and raises the possibility of a second-round runoff. The August 9 televised debate highlighted attacks on Leão’s handling of Banco de Brasília finances, while left-leaning challengers coordinated criticism with federal government ties. Trader pricing reflects her frontrunner status yet accounts for volatility from ongoing campaign events, coalition negotiations, and first-round vote thresholds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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