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icon for Eleição para o Senado do Mato Grosso do Sul: 1º Lugar
Política·Brasil

Eleição para o Senado do Mato Grosso do Sul: 1º Lugar

icon for Eleição para o Senado do Mato Grosso do Sul: 1º Lugar
Política·Brasil

Eleição para o Senado do Mato Grosso do Sul: 1º Lugar

Reinaldo Azambuja 64%

Valderi Garcia 23%

Beto do Movimento 23%

Capitão Contar 21%

Polymarket
NOVO

Reinaldo Azambuja 64%

Valderi Garcia 23%

Beto do Movimento 23%

Capitão Contar 21%

Polymarket
NOVO
icon for Reinaldo Azambuja

Reinaldo Azambuja

$192 Vol.

64%

icon for Valderi Garcia

Valderi Garcia

$21 Vol.

23%

icon for Beto do Movimento

Beto do Movimento

$21 Vol.

23%

icon for Capitão Contar

Capitão Contar

$21 Vol.

21%

icon for Vander Loubet

Vander Loubet

$21 Vol.

20%

icon for Daniel Junior

Daniel Junior

$21 Vol.

18%

icon for Soraya

Soraya

$21 Vol.

15%

icon for Roberto Oshiro

Roberto Oshiro

$92 Vol.

7%

icon for Valter da Comagran

Valter da Comagran

$90 Vol.

7%

icon for Luiz Lemes

Luiz Lemes

$42 Vol.

6%

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Reinaldo Azambuja (PL), the former Mato Grosso do Sul governor, holds the clearest edge for first place in the 2026 Senate race, backed by consistent polling leads of 38–64% in August surveys from institutes like Real Time Big Data and Ranking Brasil. His switch from PSDB to PL last year, combined with party infrastructure and alignment alongside Capitão Contar, has consolidated right-leaning support ahead of the October vote for the state's two seats. Recent candidate registration deadlines and early campaign activity have reinforced his frontrunner status, while trailing names such as Vander Loubet, Beto do Movimento, and others remain fragmented below 20% in the same surveys. Traders appear to price in his incumbency advantages and statewide visibility as the dominant factors.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$542
Data de Término
4 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Reinaldo Azambuja (PL), the former Mato Grosso do Sul governor, holds the clearest edge for first place in the 2026 Senate race, backed by consistent polling leads of 38–64% in August surveys from institutes like Real Time Big Data and Ranking Brasil. His switch from PSDB to PL last year, combined with party infrastructure and alignment alongside Capitão Contar, has consolidated right-leaning support ahead of the October vote for the state's two seats. Recent candidate registration deadlines and early campaign activity have reinforced his frontrunner status, while trailing names such as Vander Loubet, Beto do Movimento, and others remain fragmented below 20% in the same surveys. Traders appear to price in his incumbency advantages and statewide visibility as the dominant factors.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$542
Data de Término
4 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

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Mauro Mendes ganhará a maioria dos votos na eleição para o Senado de Mato Grosso em 2026?

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icon for Janaina Riva receberá o segundo maior número de votos na eleição para o Senado do Mato Grosso em 2026?

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Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Eleição para o Senado do Mato Grosso do Sul: 1º Lugar" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Reinaldo Azambuja" at 64%, followed by "Valderi Garcia" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 64¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 64% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Eleição para o Senado do Mato Grosso do Sul: 1º Lugar" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Eleição para o Senado do Mato Grosso do Sul: 1º Lugar," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Eleição para o Senado do Mato Grosso do Sul: 1º Lugar" is "Reinaldo Azambuja" at 64%, meaning the market assigns a 64% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Valderi Garcia" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Eleição para o Senado do Mato Grosso do Sul: 1º Lugar" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.